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Did UNCTAD and Tony Pua get the FDI figure wrong? A look into Misleading Statistics...


Thursday, 29 July 2010 admin-s
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By Snowball

I read a letter by the same author in both The Sun and Malaysiakini and some socio-political blogs. The writer claimed that UNCTAD got its figures wrong. Then, he blamed Tony Pua for not cross-checking with the MIDA statistics before attacking the government for the bad performance.

I highly doubted that UNCTAD and Tony Pua can get it wrong. As someone who enjoys looking into numbers and finding the true answer, I decided to look into the writer's claim.

 It is actually quite hard to find the FDI inflow figure for Malaysia. The Malaysia Department of Statistics website is more un-user friendly even when compared against the notoriously difficult to navigate National Bureau of Statistics of China website. But, I manage to find the press release by MIDA. Here's the important excerpt from the press release.

From the total approved investments last year, foreign direct investments (FDIs) accounted for 67.8% or RM22.1 billion and domestic investments made up the balance of RM10.5 billion or 32.2%.

The figure above more or less matches the figure provided in the letter by Mr. Calvin Sankaran after converting it into USD.This Mr. Calvin Sankaran goes about attacking Tony Pua credibility and qualification as an Oxford economics graduate without looking at his own qualification. Hello uncle, total approved investments is not FDI. Total approved investments are proposals to invest in Malaysia that is approved by the government but the actual act of investing the money in Malaysia have not complete or begin yet. The proposed amount may take a few years to be deployed fully. The RM22.1billion figure being mentioned by MIDA is the best case scenario. Some investors may decide not to proceed on with the investments after the approval like the case of some Dubai-based investors in Iskandar.

Another allegation by Mr Sankaran is quoted below:
First of all, had Pua followed the FDI trends, he would have taken cognisance of the fact that Uuctad's data on Malaysia's FDI inflows are completely wrong. Further, had Pua done his homework, he would have surely discovered that the data provided by the UN agency simply does not make any logical sense. 
I am not sure how did Unctad arrive at the FDI figure of US$1.38 billion but Mida had months ago had published on its website that Malaysia procured FDI worth US$6.48 billion in 2009. 

On one paragraph, he claimed that UNCTAD data do not make any logical sense, then, he went on to say that he did not know how UNCTAD arrive at the FDI figure. I would like to ask Mr Sankaran, how you know the figure is illogical when you do not know how they arrive at the figure? A quick check at the UNCTAD methodology would reveal that there are nothing wrong with their definition of FDI. You would expect a responsible person to spend a minute or two to google UNCTAD methodology before writing a letter that will be published in a national newspaper. I also find it laughable that the author can question the UNCTAD figure but trust the MIDA figure blindly.

I would also like to take this opportunity to highlight a lot of reasoning error that the writer made.  I think our Malaysian education system is so screw up that most people cannot think logically anymore. This problem is not just limited to Mr Sankaran, it happened to most Malaysian (me included but at least I try guard against making such an error).

Read more at: 

 


Comments (10)Add Comment
...
written by bloodhound, August 01, 2010 22:29:15
From my observation, these UMNO bloggers, articles or commentaries had never cared about the accuracies or truth of what they are publishing. Their only concern is to publish what is required to put on a good spin and let the government media and bloggers spread it like wildfires.

Truth was never an important part of what they publish. they only need to disseminate as widely as possible all their propaganda according to the dictates of their paymasters.

That is why a lot of their articles and speeches are almost always illogical or defies logic. They don't care as long as it gets published as widely as possible.

What else to do when they cannot defend the indefensible?
...
written by red1, July 29, 2010 22:57:23
I thought it was Nazir Razak that first admit in public that our FDI is down? Surely he must have resources to check those figures. And he admit that it was down but ask us not to worry. We share his facts, but not his sentiments. We do worry. We do not have that much shares in CIMB.
...
written by archie, July 29, 2010 08:42:57
Sankaran: I am not sure how did Unctad arrive at the FDI figure of US$1.38 billion.......

Surely the Unctad must have the details (e.g destination) of FDI outflow of all major economies like the US, EU, China, Japan?
...
written by Buayanegara, July 29, 2010 01:47:03
FCUK the truth !!!
aS LONG AS I GET MY BLOODY MILLIONS - I WILL SWEAR MY MOTHER IS AN ORANG UTAN.
...
written by jayenjr, July 29, 2010 00:54:05
Me thinks that this Calvin Sankaran fella is some kind of desperado. Well, that's how I interpret when any fella works hard to get the same letter to appear in all the major newspapers and also on major online medias.

At the same time, any fella who states "...almost everyone I spoke with seemed to agree that Malaysia has made very significant progress economically and politically under PM Najib".....

Must be a desperado.
...
written by eloofk, July 29, 2010 00:04:42
The report released by UNCTAD, a world body, highly respected by governments all over the world worth reading by economists, is an important and credible report. In the 2010 report release, Malaysia's FDI fell by 80% last year from 2008.

Foreign investment brought in last year was only RM4.4 billions compared to RM23.4 billions in 2008.

It goes to show that Najib's administration is not managing the economy properly but instead trying to mislead the people that the country is doping well.
...
written by hkh, July 28, 2010 23:59:04
g****e a bit, the rest of it is here

http://www.blogged.my/gotopingbar.php?ping=126578
...
written by syd, July 28, 2010 23:40:59
Who cares if there is no money coming in and more money going out.
That can only mean one thing.
Less traffic jams, less inflation, lower housing prices in future, less students in classrooms as many have migrated overseas.
...
written by hellosunshine, July 28, 2010 23:18:57
Aiya, Malaysian official methodology has been tried and tested over 52 years lah. See how the BeEnd gomen forced ASLI to withdraw the report by Dr Lim Teck Ghee, exposing the bumiputra corporate equity ownership could be as high as 45% and not 18.9% as stated in government statistics. smilies/cheesy.gifsmilies/grin.gif
...
written by Mark C, July 28, 2010 22:39:47
where is the rest of the article?smilies/grin.gif

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