KT and the DPM

By Wong Chin Huat, The Nut Graph

IF the Permatang Pauh by-election indirectly shortened Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's political life, the Kuala Terengganu by-election will not be much kinder to his chosen successor. It has been reported in Malaysiakini that incoming prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak sees this by-election as a do-or-die battle for the Barisan Nasional (BN). 

While such emphasis may be needed to mobilise his troops, his assertion is far from accurate. On the positive side for Najib, only the loss of this by-election by a large margin would immediately send the BN government into intensive care. That said, there would be little reward for him even if he does win this uphill battle.

No miracles for Najib

Traditionally, the BN has an upper hand in by-elections as it can pull national resources from around the country to dwarf the poorly oiled opposition machinery. Possible upsets by opposition candidates therefore raise the stakes exactly because of this unlevel playing field, and by-elections can be significant in three ways.

First, they may affect the government's legislative majority. A case in point was the Pengkalan Pasir by-election in 2005. PAS's defeat reduced the government majority to a wafer-thin 23:22 in the 45-member Kelantan state assembly.

This will not be the case in Kuala Terengganu. In the 222-member Parliament, a BN victory will keep the government-to-opposition balance at 138:84 (62.16% majority), while a Pakatan Rakyat triumph will slightly reduce it to 137:85 (61.71%).

Second, a by-election can also be a personal battle for a defiant politician to test his or her popularity, like Tambunan (1984) for Datuk Seri Panglima Joseph Pairin Kitingan or Johor Baru (1988) for Datuk Shahrir Samad. Though the seat was vacated by his wife, Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's Permatang Pauh (2008) showdown was a similar popularity test.

In those battles, a defeat would have been seriously demoralising for the politician and his supporters, but they all indeed turned out triumphant and electrified.

In Kuala Terengganu, there is no such prize for the BN. While five-term state legislator Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut is no local lightweight, his defeat, unless by a large margin, will not send shockwaves through PAS or the Pakatan Rakyat. And Najib would not even be able to claim Datuk Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh's victory as that of his own faction. Farid is perceived so strongly to be Abdullah's man that even Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad cannot help but attack him.

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