Moment of truth for Kuala Terengganu
(Business Times Singapore) KUALA TERENGGANU, Jan 17 — Campaigning ceased at midnight yesterday for an important by-election in the parliamentary constituency of Kuala Terengganu ahead of voting later today.
The reason could lie with the Chinese community which has traditionally leaned towards the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition in previous elections in the Malay-majority state. The BN is a 13-party coalition dominated by Umno.
This time, however, various issues including dissatisfaction over the rising cost of living and the stunning showing by the Opposition in the March 8 general election may have conspired to push many of them into the Opposition's arms.
Indeed, analysts agree that the Chinese vote could be crucial. They comprise 11 per cent of the constituency's 80,000-odd voters and both parties agree that the Malay vote could be split down the middle.
Mustafa Ali, the Pas operation director, told reporters that all he was sure was that “each party has at least 40 per cent Malay support” indicating that he wasn't sure which way the remaining 20 per cent would lean towards. Thus, a decisive swing towards the Opposition by the Chinese — which seems to be the probable outcome — could tip the balance.
Even so, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who spent two days in the area, seemed confident enough. “God willing, we will win but we will have to work very hard,” he told reporters on Thursday night. Other Umno officials told BT that in the beginning, Pas had held the edge but the intense campaigning had narrowed the gap.
Abdullah can be forgiven for taking this election seriously. It comes at a crucial time for Umno which will see a power transition in March when Abdullah steps down in favour of his deputy in the party and government, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, 55, and so the premier will be anxious to leave on a winning note. Abdullah was forced to step down after the general election when the BN lost more than a third of parliamentary seats as well as five state governments, its worst drubbing since independence.
Umno also needs to win to blunt the Opposition's momentum — it won the last parliamentary by-election by a huge margin — and to bolster its claims that the Opposition coalition is in danger of cracking up and, therefore, isn't a viable alternative.
Umno also needs to affirm that it alone is the true political champion of the Malays, who form the majority (64 per cent) of Malaysia's population. Privately, Umno officials also fear that if they keep losing, the ensuing loss of confidence could affect the BN in Sarawak which must hold its state legislative elections by 2010 but could call a snap poll this year.
The results will be known by 8 tonight. — Business Times Singapore
