Your 5.5 million against my 1 million (with Mandarin translation)

Umno has 20,000 branches within 191 divisions. So they need to fabricate members to allow these branches to exist. The members do not really exist. They are just names to make up the numbers so that the branches can be created and thereafter perpetuated.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Muhyiddin: Don’t underestimate 3 million strong Umno

Umno vice-president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin reminded opposition parties, including Pas, not to belittle Umno, while admitting the party’s need to improve various areas. Muhyiddin, who is also International Trade and Industry Minister, said the rise and fall of power is part and parcel of life and had happened to all parties.

“That is his opinion. For us in Umno, the party has been long established with more than three million members and can be regarded as the biggest political organisation.”

“Every political organisation will have its seasons. Sometimes we are strong, sometimes we will face problems. Opposition leaders will not respect us. We don’t expect them to make positive comments or statements although problems also exist in PAS and Pakatan Rakyat,” he said.

Muhyiddin was commenting on Kelantan Menteri Besar Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat’s statement describing Umno as a dying tree, after attending a Chinese New Year open house organised by Umno Kalabakan.

He said Umno and Barisan Nasional’s (BN) defeat in several by-elections are not indicators that the party is weak and cannot rise again. “We admit our weaknesses, but it does not mean that we are hopeless cases. After the general election we realised this and have started to make internal changes and reforms. Don’t underestimate Umno’s strength,” he said.

He said BN and Umno hoped to send a message to the people that the party is not static and are willing to make improvements necessary with the country’s changing political landscape. Muhyiddin added that he is confident the people will accept the party’s changes and ensure victory for BN in the next general election for continuing development in the country. — Bernama, 3 February 2009

Okay, today, let’s get away from the Perak political crisis for the meantime while we wait for the official announcement as to whether we are going to see two by-elections or we are going to see the Perak State Assembly dissolved to make way for fresh state elections. If the Elections Commission ‘rejects’ the resignation letters of the Changkat Jering and Behrang State Assemblymen, then Pakatan Rakyat would have no choice but to dissolve the Perak State Assembly and hold fresh state elections.

What I want to talk about today is the statement by the incoming Deputy Prime Minister who will serve under incoming Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. The incoming Deputy Prime Minister meant here is Umno Vice-President cum International Trade and Industry Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin. And his statement is about the three million members that Umno has.

Actually, Umno may have three million members, as they always proudly claim, but if you were to include the members of the 13 other component members of Barisan Nasional, then it would come to 5.5 million, or so they claim.

A short digression to this subject but still related to the issue: in the two weeks that we spent in Kuala Terengganu in the run-up to the by-election last month, we noticed that almost EVERY Chinese citizen of Kuala Terengganu is an MCA life member. Yes, that’s right, almost all the Chinese in Kuala Terengganu are life members of MCA.

Going by these statistics, Barisan Nasional should have garnered at least 90% of the Kuala Terengganu Chinese votes. But they didn’t. Isn’t this telling? Boasting about how many members you have is one thing. Whether your own members will vote for you is more important. If you can’t get even your own members to vote for you then what chance do you have of getting the ‘fence-sitters’, those who are not card-carrying members of any party, to vote for you? And we are not yet even talking about winning over the votes of the opposition supporters. This would be as remote as seeing Umno abandon Ketuanan Melayu and the New Economic Policy.

Barisan Nasional is supposed to have 5.5 million members, three million in Umno alone. But in the 8 March 2008 general election, Barisan Nasional garnered only 4,082,411 or 50.6% of the popular votes. Pakatan Rakyat managed 3,796,464 or 49.4% of the votes with only one million members.

What happened? How come Barisan Nasional won only 4,082,411 votes against the backdrop of 5.5 million party members? And surely, in an election, not only your own members vote for you. Surely the ‘fence-sitters’ or non-card-carrying voters of any party also vote for you.

Let us work out the arithmetic. Barisan Nasional has 5.5 million members and Pakatan Rakyat about one million or so. That comes to 6.5 million voters who are card-carrying party members. So about 4.5 million voters are not card-carrying members of any party. This would be the ‘fence-sitters’ or uncommitted voters that both coalitions would want to win over.

In the 8 March 2008 general election, 222 Parliament seats in 12 states (including the Federal Territory which has 13 seats) and 505 state seats in 13 states were up for grabs (Sarawak did not hold state elections in the 2008 general election). There were 10,922,139 registered voters (an increase of 600,000 over the 2004 general election), which includes the 221,085 postal voters. So the ‘real’ voters came to only 10,701,054.

The total votes garnered by Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat combined were 7,878,875. This comes to a voter turnout of 70.71%, a very low turnout indeed. If we minus the 221,085 postal votes, which are ‘bonus’ votes for Barisan Nasional, the ‘genuine’ voters would come to only 7,657,790.

This means if we minus the 221,085 postal votes, Barisan Nasional actually garnered only 3,861,326 votes against Pakatan Rakyat’s 3,796,464. This comes to a majority of only 64,862 votes.

Okay, Barisan Nasional has 5.5 million members. This means they should get at least 70.71% of this (calculated on an across-the-board basis according to the voter turnout). Therefore, Barisan Nasional should have garnered 3,889,050 votes if all their members voted for them and if calculated on a 70.71% voter turnout. Then they got the 221,085 postal votes. So the total votes for Barisan Nasional should have been 4,110,135 votes.

This means three things. Firstly, about 30% of Barisan Nasional’s members did not bother to come out to vote for their own party. Or, secondly, many of their members voted for the opposition. Thirdly, if we assume that all your members voted for you and not for the other side, this means NONE of the non-card-carrying voters voted for you. ALL voted for the ‘other side’.

Whatever it may be; it is impossible for the opposition to win 100% of the uncommitted voters. Many would also vote for Barisan Nasional even if they are not members of any of the 14 component members of the coalition. This would then mean many Barisan Nasional members did not vote for their own party. Or probably these members do not exist in the first place.

Pakatan Rakyat has just one million members or so. Yet they garnered 3,796,464 votes. The bottom line is: Pakatan Rakyat got almost four times the votes compared to the members it has, while Barisan Nasional could not even get the same number of votes as it has members.

Muhyiddin Yassin’s boast about Umno having three million members, or of Barisan Nasional having 5.5 million, means nothing if you can’t translate these numbers into votes. Hell, only 70.71% came out to vote on 8 March 2008. About 30% or three million people stayed home, many of them Barisan Nasional members as well. You not only could not get your own members to come out and vote, even those that did come out to vote did not all vote for you, their own party.

Anyway, everyone knows that Umno’s and Barisan Nasional’s ‘members’ are ‘paper’ members only. They only exist on paper. In many instances they can’t even hold general meetings because they can’t get the quorum at branch level and many meetings are mere ‘paper’ meetings.

Umno has 20,000 branches within 191 divisions. So they need to fabricate members to allow these branches to exist. The members do not really exist. They are just names to make up the numbers so that the branches can be created and thereafter perpetuated. Many branches are mere signboards to give an impression that they exist. There is really no branch activity as such.

Either way it is a farce. If the members do exist then that is bad news because your own members did not vote for you. And if the members do not exist then you are just kidding yourself. Both do not augur well for the ‘largest Islamic party in the world’, as what Umno claims to be.

 

 

 《毫不留情》你的5百50万比我的1百万

 

巫统有20,000支部，191个区部。所以他们需要捏造党员人数以便让这些支部存在。党员都不真正存在。他们只是凑合起来的名字，以便成立支部。许多支部只是挂上招牌，给人一种他们存在的假象。

 

慕尤丁∶莫小觑巫统三百万的势力

【斗湖二月三日马新社讯】巫统副主席丹斯里慕尤丁提醒反对党，包括回敎党,不要小看巫统的势力，尽管他承认党内有一些弱点需要纠正。也是贸工部长的他说，一个政党的兴衰只是生命的常事，每个政党无可避免。

他说：“那是他的看法，对我们来说，巫统是一个历史很久的政党，拥有超过3百万名的党员，可以算是最大的政党。”

他说：“每个政党有它的起落。我们有时很强大，有时我们会面对问题。反对党领袖不会尊敬我们，我们也不会期望他们对我们做出正面的评论或声明，虽然回敎党和民联本身也面对问题。”

他是在出席一个由卡拉巴干区巫统主办的新春团拜后，针对丹州大臣拿督聂阿兹形容巫统为一棵枯死的树的言论，做出反应。

他说，巫统和国阵在数个补选的失败，不能用作为党已经衰弱及无力振作的迹象。他说：“我们承认我们的一些弱点，这并不意味着我们已经没有希望。在大选后我们就醒觉，然后开始做出内部调整和改革。别小看巫统的实力。”

他说，巫统和国阵希望能向人民传达一个信息，就是巫统和国阵并不是静止不变的，也愿意作出必须的改进，以便符合国家蜕变中的政治环境 。慕尤丁补充说，他有信心人民会接受该党的改变，确保国阵在下届大选的胜出，继续发展这个国家。

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好了，今天，正当我们等待是否有两个补选还是解散州议会的正式宣布时，就暂时离开霹雳的政治危机。若选委会‘拒绝接受’美冷区和章卡遮令区州议员的辞职信的话，那民联在没有选择之下，只好解散霹雳州议会，举行州选举了。

我今天所要说的是将在候任首相纳吉底下做事的候任副首相发表的声明。这里所谓的候任副首相就是巫统的署理主席兼国际贸工部长丹斯里慕尤丁了。他的声明是有关巫统拥有的三百万党员。

实际上，就如他们时常引以为傲的宣称那样，巫统也许有三百万党员。不过若你把国阵其它13个成员党也算进来的话，那么就接近5百50万党员了。

虽然有点离题但还是有点关系的是，上个月我们在瓜丁补选时呆了约两个星期，我们注意到几乎所有的瓜丁华族公民都是马华永久党员。是的，就是啦，几乎所有的瓜丁华人都是马华的永久党员。

根据这样的数据，国阵应该得到至少九成的瓜丁华人票。但是他们却没有。这不是很明显吗？夸耀有多少党员是一回事，更重要的是，你那些党员会不会投选你。若你连自己的党员都不选你，那么你还有什么希望拿到游离票 – 那些无党籍人士的票呢? 而我们还没有提到要赢取反对党支持者的票呢。这跟巫统放弃马来人霸权和新经济政策一般不可思议了。

国阵理应有5百50万名党员，单是巫统就占了三百万。但是在三八大选，国阵的得票率只有4,082,411张，或总票数的50.6%。而只有一百万名党员的民联则得票3,796,464或49.4%的总票数。

这到底是怎么回事了? 为何有5百50万党员的国阵才得票4,082,411张而已? 当然，在一个选举中，投你的不只是你自己的党员，还有游离票或是无党籍选民也会投选你。

让我们来算一算。国阵有5百50万名党员，民联有一百万左右。那就是说，有6百50万名选民是政党党员。那么大约4百50万名选民是无党籍选民，这些游离票都是两方面的人都想嬴取的。

在三八大选，12州里（包括联邦直辖区的13席）共有222个国会议席和13州里的505个州议席供竞选。(在2008年大选里，沙朥越没有举行州选举。）一共有10,922,139个登记选民(比2004年增加了60万),包括了221,085张邮寄选票，所以‘真正’的选民只有10,701,054名。

国阵和民联的得票数相加的话是7,878,875。这表示70.71%的选民出来投选。这是很低的。若我们把作为国阵的‘加分票’的221,085张邮寄选票减去的话，‘名符其实’的选民只有7,657,790人。

这表示说，若我们从国阵的得票中减掉221,085张邮寄选票，国阵只得票3,861,326张，对民联的3,796,464张。这表示说，多数票只有64,862张。

好，国阵有5百50万名党员。这表示说他们至少可以从中得票70.71%(根据投选率全面地计算)。因此，若他们的党员都投选国阵，以70.71%的投票率来算，他们应该有3,889,050张选票。加上221,085张邮寄选票，国阵理应得票 4,110,135张。

这说明了三件事。第一，约30%的国阵党员懒的出来投自己的政党一票。或，第二，他们的许多党员投选了反对党。第三，若我们假设所有的党员都投选自己的政党，那表示说国阵连一张游离票也得不到。所有的游离票都去了‘另一边‘。

不管怎样，反对党是不可能赢到100%的无党籍选民的选票的。他们虽然没有党籍但他们许多人都投给国阵。这表示说，没有投给国阵自己政党一票的人更加多。又或许这些党员本来就是不存在的。

民联只有约一百万名党员。但是他们却得票3,796,464张。结论是: 民联几乎得到其党员人数的四倍选票。而国阵却得不到与他们党员人数成正比的票数。

慕尤丁夸耀巫统有三百万名党员，或国阵有5百50万名党员，但无法把这些数字换成选票是没有意义的。更糟的，三八大选只有70.71%的投票率。大概有30%或三百万的人躲在家里。这些人许多都是国阵的党员。你连自己的党员都不出来投票，即使出来投票也不投给自己的政党。

无论如何，每个人都知道巫统和国阵的党员只是‘纸上’党员。他们只是‘名义’上出现。在很多时候他们都不能举行成员大会，因为在支部都无法达到法定人数，许多会议只是‘名义’会议。

巫统有20,000支部，191个区部。所以他们需要捏造党员人数以便让这些支部存在。党员都不真正存在。他们只是凑合起来的名字，以便成立支部。许多支部只是挂上招牌，给人一种他们存在的假象。实际上是没有任何支部活动的。

无论怎么看都是可笑的。若党员真的有存在，那就是坏消息了。因为你自己的党员都不投选给你。若党员不存在，那你只不过在欺骗自己。无论如何，对巫统时常引以为傲的‘世界上最大的回教政党’来说，是一个很不好的预示。