Malaysia’s battle of attrition

It is likely to reinforce the view that despite the drubbing at the polls last March, which saw the BN lose control of five states, including Perak, Selangor and Kedah, it has not learnt its lesson and is unwilling to or incapable of reform.

The Straits Times

Almost one year on, the aftershocks from the general election continue to roil the political landscape. Last week, new fault lines appeared in Perak with the collapse of the opposition-led state government after a bruising constitutional tug-of-war.

Images of Perak's menteri besar being unceremoniously escorted from his office by security personnel and those of violent street clashes between police and demonstrators opposed to the new state government have renewed debate over the role of key institutions, such as the royalty, the civil service and security agencies.

They have also triggered hostile reactions towards Umno and the Barisan Nasional coalition that it leads.

“Judging from initial public sentiment, the episode demonstrates the growing disconnect between the people and the government, and you can bet that this is what the opposition is going to harp on in the coming months,” said Shamsul Amri, who teaches political science at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia.

It is likely to reinforce the view that despite the drubbing at the polls last March, which saw the BN lose control of five states, including Perak, Selangor and Kedah, it has not learnt its lesson and is unwilling to or incapable of reform.

At the same time it also illustrates the tensions at work as Malaysia struggles to establish a functioning two-party system, with BN in one corner and former deputy premier Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Rakyat coalition in the other.

Caught in the Perak tussle is another political institution: the royalty.

Last week as speculation swirled of defections among several state assemblymen, Perak's Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Nizar Jamaluddin sought an audience with Sultan Azlan Shah to seek his permission to dissolve the state assembly and pave the way for fresh elections.

The Sultan did not immediately grant Nizar an audience. He consented to see him hours later, after he was informed that the majority enjoyed by the opposition Pakatan Rakyat coalition had shifted in favour of the Umno-led BN following the defections of four elected representatives.

After meetings with the menteri besar and Umno representatives including Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, Sultan Azlan Shah refused to grant Nizar's request to dissolve the state assembly. Instead, the menteri besar and his representatives were asked to make way for an Umno-led state administration.

Nizar refused, triggering a constitutional crisis, which prompted Sultan Azlan to sack him and subsequently install the Umno-led representatives.

In the din of the public outrage that followed Nizar's sacking, it is clear that the country's constitutional monarchy has come out a big loser in the Perak crisis.

There is intense debate over whether Sultan Azlan, who headed the country's judiciary before taking over as the head of the Perak royal household in 1984, acted within his powers under the Constitution.

Proponents argue that he did because he went to great lengths to satisfy himself that the majority had shifted. Government officials say that he personally interviewed the four elected representatives and was convinced that the Umno-led BN had secured the majority.

But the popular view is that the Sultan should have opted for fresh state assembly elections and those sentiments were loudly demonstrated last Friday, when large groups of ethnic Malays converged at a mosque not far from the royal palace where the new Umno-led government was being sworn in.

Police were forced to break up the unprecedented protests against the Sultan by firing tear gas into the crowds and arresting more than a dozen demonstrators.

Lawyers say that his decision to personally interview the elected representatives backing the BN sets a precedent that could be tested again when Najib takes over the prime minister's post from Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi on March 31.

The Federal Constitution, like the Perak state charter, stipulates that the King shall appoint as premier the person he believes commands the majority support in Parliament.

In the past, the appointment of the prime minister was largely ceremonial because the Umno-led BN always commanded more than a two-thirds majority in Parliament.

But the BN no longer enjoys an overwhelming majority in Parliament. Should Anwar win over more defectors from the government ahead of the power transfer, Malaysia could face a constitutional crisis similar to the one that engulfed Perak last week.

If the deep public outrage towards the BN over its power grab in Perak is any gauge, that route to power carries its own risks and is one that Anwar should reconsider.

Anwar so far is not abandoning his plans for a possible takeover through defections. “If we do succeed (in taking over the government), our plan is to hold fresh elections to secure a new mandate within months. We are not like the government which has robbed power in Perak and is afraid to go back to the people for their support,” he told The Straits Times.

Anwar and his allies will get their chance for a mini-referendum in early April, when a by-election will be held for a Perak parliamentary seat in Bukit Gantang, following the death of an opposition MP.

This time around, the betting is not on whether Umno will be able to wrest back the seat but on how badly it will lose. Public cynicism towards the government continues to rise and politicians are locked in a battle of attrition at a time when Malaysia should be focusing on how to minimise the pain from the global economic storm.

If both camps are to be consumed in wooing and watching out for defectors, political expediency will rule the day.