Timing of by-elections a double-edged sword
The possibility that certain segments of Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau's electorate would be offended by what transpires at the debates is real, given the propensity of some Umno delegates to indulge in jingoistic chest-thumping at their party assemblies.
NEW STRAITS TIMES
SIMULTANEOUS by-elections are rare in Malaysia. When they are announced, excitement builds up to the day voters go to the polls and does not immediately die down after the results are out.
Not so with the Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau by-elections. Every political junkie has them on the watch list, but their standing on that list has somewhat receded in priority.
The reason is not just because so many other things have happened since the seats were vacated in the first week of this month, but mainly because they take place 57 days after their elected representatives either died or resigned.
This "stretching the constitutional 60-day limit", as veteran DAP leader Lim Kit Siang termed it, was pounced on by him and his Pakatan Rakyat colleagues, who contend that the two polls were "conveniently" scheduled for after the Umno party elections from March 24 to 28, which they claim is a tremendous advantage to the Barisan Nasional.
Lim even called the Election Commission a tool of Umno after the EC had fixed the dates.
But this is not necessarily so, say several Umno leaders, as such an arrangement could still be detrimental to the party and BN's campaign for Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau.
The Pakatan argument is that the near-maximum duration between the seats falling vacant and the polls to fill them would give Umno, BN's prime mover, ample time to get over what will be its most important assembly in recent memory, where the transition of the nation's top two posts will take place.
It is argued that once Umno's new leadership is installed, its factions and the party machinery will fall in line and morph into one cohesive unit that will plough through the opposition.
Umno, and the ruling coalition as a whole, would also be able to capitalise on the feel-good vibes that usually accompany the rise of a new prime minister and party president, as seen in the massive general election sweeps in 1982 and 2004.
What Umno wants to prevent is the lobbying and sabotage that goes on behind the scenes in a by-election campaign among followers of leaders going for higher party positions, as prevalent in last month's Kuala Terengganu by-election.
But Umno leaders familiar with how the party functions say that the by-elections' scheduling is a double-edged sword.
"You have no guarantee that those who lost in the party's elections will go down to the ground to help the winners, despite the assurances they give now," said a division official from Penang.
Indeed, even while lobbying in Kuala Terengganu, Umno aspirants still visited villages to canvass for votes.
The same could occur during the Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau by-elections, warns the Penang leader, with the losers making only token appearances in the campaign, which may prove ultimately ineffectual.
A division official from Sabah points out that while the presidential transition could embolden members, there's no telling how the voters in those constituencies will react to the Umno assembly's debates.
The possibility that certain segments of Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau's electorate would be offended by what transpires at the debates is real, given the propensity of some Umno delegates to indulge in jingoistic chest-thumping at their party assemblies.
Even the act of unsheathing and kissing a kris, at the 2006 assembly, had wide-ranging effects felt in the 12th general election two years later.
Both constituencies feature significant proportions of non-Malay voters (36.5 per cent of the electorate in Bukit Gantang and 49.8 per cent in Bukit Selambau) who could react negatively to such insensitivity.
However, Bukit Gantang Umno division chief Datuk Rosli Hussin, who will run the election machinery there, does not think that it will matter one whit whether the by-elections are held before the Umno assembly.
The BN's takeover of the state government is still fresh on the minds of voters, as are Pakatan's blusterous protests against the Perak royalty.
"We have been giving small-scale ceramah in villages all over the constituency about Malay dominance and protecting the sultanate, and the turnout has been high," says Rosli, who is Trong assemblyman.
"We've even had Pas members defecting to our side because they were sick of the shenanigans of their leaders in Perak."
He is not too perturbed about spillover effects from the assembly, as he is confident that local issues and concerns will take precedence.
So what goes on in the hallowed halls of the Putra World Trade Centre may have little bearing after all on the men and women of Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau in the last week of March, for it is they — not Umno delegates, nor even the new president — who will cast their votes on April 7.
