Parochial ways of the hornbill
By James Chin (The Malaysian Insider)
FEB 26 — People in Sarawak are getting excited. For the past few months, Anwar has been visiting Sarawak on an almost weekly basis. He has taken over as Sarawak PKR liaison person, i.e. Brother No. 1. He had a nice tea with Sarawak DAP leaders and kind words were exchanged. Previously Sarawak PKR and Sarawak DAP were unable to talk because the previous PKR head, a Sarawak state assemblyman, had bad blood with the Sarawak DAP leaders.
Now with the Batang Ai by-election coming up, it’s time for PKR to face the music. Batang Ai was won by the BN with a slim majority of only 806 votes. The seat could not be more marginal.
In Sarawak politics, the game is played three ways in the 71-seat assembly. The Malays/Melanau/Muslims (MMM) control 27 seats, Dayaks 29 seats, Chinese 12 seats and there are three mixed seats.
Since the MMM seats are difficult to win due to the dominance of Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu, and the Chinese seats are locked up by the DAP, the only avenue for PKR is Dayak and mixed seats.
The strategy is simple. If we assume that DAP will perform well (all indications are that the Chinese have given up on SUPP), DAP should picked up 10-13 seats, PKR will pickup Dayak/mixed 15-20 seats and independent/minor parties will pick up 3-5 seats, then the opposition will stand a real chance of removing Sarawak BN from power. If PKR has credible Muslim candidates, it may even pick up 2-4 MMM seats, ensuring a simple majority.
This scenario assumes that the mood in Sarawak will be similar to the March 08 mood in the peninsula. This is a big IF given that Sarawakians work in a different universe and their political thinking is completely different. Sarawakians are parochial at best, partly due to under-development of the rural areas, and a deliberate (mis)use of Sarawak nationalism that reinforces the parochial instinct.
Money is still king in the rural areas, and logistics costs are huge. Using a helicopter (assuming you can actually find one since all will be pre-booked by you-know-who) costs about RM5,000 per hour. Hiring a boat to move upriver will set you back at least RM1,000 a day. And voters expect to be paid. You can’t really blame them since they only get this benefit once every four or five years.
People in the peninsula often find it hard to comprehend. The easiest way to describe life in rural Sarawak is to imagine what the Klang Valley was like BEFORE independence i.e. no regular water supply, no electricity, no roads, no medical clinics, etc. Is it any wonder that young Dayaks refuse to go back to the longhouse once they visit Kuching or Miri?
Still, there is enough anger in the Dayak community that PKR may tap into to get things moving on the ground. The issue now is momentum. If PKR wins Batang Ai, then the opposition will be within striking distance of dislodging the Sarawak BN.
If PKR loses, then Anwar’s image will suffer and many Dayaks who are joining PKR now will move back to the middle ground. The average Dayak voters are unpredictable. If PKR cannot sustain the momentum until the next state election next year, there is every reason to think that Sarawak will remain a BN stronghold.
This is where the irony sets in. If Sarawak remains a BN stronghold, then Umno (and MCA, Gerakan and MIC) can forget about moving into Sarawak. Since independence they have been trying to move into East Malaysia. They moved into Sabah when PBS pulled out of the BN just before the 1990 general election.
Thus, Umno and gang can only move into Sarawak when Sarawak BN loses power or is weak.
In other words, the stakes could not be higher for PR or BN. Batang Ai folks are really going to enjoy the “fruits” of development between now and the by-election. They may even get electricity!
