One year on, a country divided
Ibrahim acknowledges the fact that while some Malays are swinging back to Umno, but he says there are others who are moving towards the opposition because of the excessiveness and corruption within the ruling party.
By Neville Spykerman, The Malaysian Insider
It's been one year since the political Tsunami hit our shores, yet political sentiment on the ground remains mostly unchanged.
Merdeka Centre for Opinion Research director Ibrahim Suffian says the general feeling of voters now remains the same as it was post March 8 last year.
Malay voter support is evenly split between Barisan National (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) parties, while most non-Malays are still leaning towards the opposition.
Both sides have become entrenched and supporters are increasingly vocal in expressing their views.
Ibrahim cites as an example the growing rhetoric in the debate on Malay rights has made little difference in increasing Malay support for Umno.
"While some Malays are anxious about their special rights, realistically others know it's not going to put food on the table," he told The Malaysian Insider.
Ibrahim's Merdeka Centre has become the leading political opinion research organisation in the country. Merdeka Center surveys have become a barometer of public opinion, successfully predicting voter sentiment in a number of by-elections in the past year.
He spoke to The Malaysian Insider yesterday, as the country marks one year since the landmark elections that saw the opposition make unprecedented gains against the Barisan Nasional.
Since then, the country has been mired in intense political rivalry even as the economy continues to suffer as a result of a global recession.
Ibrahim acknowledges the fact that while some Malays are swinging back to Umno, but he says there are others who are moving towards the opposition because of the excessiveness and corruption within the ruling party.
"There is increased pessimism among Malays who are only now, unlike the Chinese, realising the scale of the economic crisis."
Meanwhile both sides will have to contend with the influx of new voters, who will be eligible to cast their ballots and shape the outcome of the next general elections.
Ibrahim said these new voters will be less dependent on the government and have more access to information, which will make them more critical and more likely to favour the opposition.
For Umno, retaining the rural Malay votes, with the fall of commodity prices, will also pose a challenge.
Ibrahim sees a correlation between the high palm oil prices during the March 8 elections and Umno's success among rural voters at the time.
Oil palm prices were over RM4,000 a ton at the time but have since tumbled by half.
Retaining votes from the Malay heartland could depend on how the government cushions the fall of oil palm and rubber prices.
Ibrahim feels that unlike the past, the public now has longer memories, greater expectations and are less forgiving.
"Let's just say people have better hard-drives, which cannot be easily erased."
He said this can be seen by the discontent felt by Malaysians over the unfulfilled promises made by BN during 2004 General Elections.
Similarly, the current constitutional crisis in Perak is not sitting well with Malaysians and there may be a price to pay during the next general elections.
Within Umno, there is sense of excitement with incoming Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak.
However only time will tell if he will be able to reform both Umno and BN.
His cabinet appointments, what he achieves during his first 100 days, and the steps he takes to tackles the economic crisis, will indicate if he has what it takes, to carry out reforms.
As for Pakatan Rakyat, Ibrahim said the coalition seems to be holding together despite conflicting and even competing interests.
Even hardliners seem to have realized the benefits of reaching the middle ground, which was evident during the recent Kuala Terengganu by-election.
However Ibrahim said the party to watch is Pas, which is bigger and better organized, despite having the smallest number of parliamentary seats among its PR partners.
The Islamist party is scheduled to hold its polls in June and there is a tussle for influence between the young and progressive with the orthodox fractions within Pas.
The outcome of the Pas election could well determine the future of PR.
"Malays will form the backbone of any future government and Pas is the party which is in direct competition with Umno for Malay voters."
