March 8 the outcome of a changing society
By Chan Kok Leong (The Edge)
KUALA LUMPUR: One year on after the nation's groundbreaking general election, there is yet a firm analysis on what caused Barisan Nasional's (BN) huge setback on March 8, 2008.
While analysts offer reasons such as new voters, stronger opposition, the inability of the government to fulfil its 2004 pledges, internal party strife, the Internet media etc, a definite answer remains to be found.
Dr Edmund Terence Gomez agrees with all the above reasons but he also offers another explanation, after taking into account the voting patterns since 1990.
Presenting his findings during a forum organised by Konrad Adenauer Stiftung recently, the Universiti Malaya associate professor said that BN's failure stems from its inability to react to transitions in society.
"On the other hand, after Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's release, the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) adviser read public society very well and attuned themselves to NGOs. They moved to respond to these transitions that were being articulated," Gomez told his audience.
During his 25-minute presentation, the former United Nations research coordinator traced voting patterns back to 1990, when the first major shift of recent times took place with the emergence of Semangat 46.
Looking back, Gomez said that former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad's rule was characterised by an extreme concentration of power in the office of the Executive.
"The three main thrusts of Mahathir's rule were the creation of a dynamic entrepreneurial community capable of competing internationally, industrialised nation by 2020 and creating a new class of Malay capitalists.
"This in turn created spatial, regional and class divide specifically among Malays. On the one hand, we have a new urban middle class, independent dynamic professional Malay group. This is also a very disgruntled group because they cannot break into the elite cohort."
This group, he said, supported PKR in 1999 and again moved to support them in 2008. The second group are the rural Malays, where serious poverty still persist.
"This is the backbone of Umno but are increasingly seeing Umno not as a protector, but as a party that has failed to deliver its promises," said Gomez. "This group turned to PAS in 1999 and 2008."
BN's huge success in 2004, he explained, occurred after Mahathir passed the mantle to Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
"When Abdullah came in, he adopted a more populist agenda and pledged to implement policies that would help rural Malays who had long been abandoned by Umno since the mid-1990s.
"Abdullah promised to eradicate poverty by promoting agriculture, a sector rural Malays were involved in, help small medium enterprises and rein in corruption."
By stressing these reforms, Abdullah had undermined the reformasi movement, explaining why BN did so well in the 2004 elections.
"And although Umno had consolidated in 2004, this took place without any major structural change. The only change was that Abdullah had come to power," said Gomez.
However, the present prime minister's policies were ineffective and Abdullah blamed this on a poor delivery system.
"Since 2004, non-Malay and younger voters have begun to articulate identity politics — bangsa Malaysia. This is prominent in urban middle class.
"Abdullah and Mahathir, who coined the term, recognise these transitions were occurring in society but in practice, racial politics continued to rule unchecked.
On the opposition's rise, Gomez said that Anwar recognised this shift and promised multiracial politics and to dispense with affirmative action.
"Promises to end affirmative action, based on race, drove non-Malays to the opposition and for the rural Malays, there was a realisation that although they were the target group, they had not benefited."
Lessons to be learnt from March 8
"Politics is ever-changing and 1990 to 2008 shows that society is ready to dispense with race-based parties. This has been acknowledged by all parties but Umno remains resistant to change
"PAS must also review its Islamic state goal if the opposition pact is to hold. As for affirmative action, can we still sustain this in the face of a global economic crisis?" Gomez asked.
Gomez observed that both BN and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) know the need to be more inclusive and hence less racial and religiously based.
"We can see that happening in PR, in an attempt to move away from hegemonic type of policies to be more participatory. But we do not see Umno moving in that direction to accommodate other parties in BN."
The changing urban and rural dynamics will provide the next challenge for political parties, said Gomez.
"On one hand, the Malay heartland's view of politics is ethnic-based and will still insist on affirmative action. As to the urban areas, there is a clear shift to non-ethnic-based politics with the rise of a new middle class, calling for change in new politics.
"This suggests that our political parties must strike a fine balance between the Malay heartland and urban areas.
Although 10 years old now, the reformasi movement was an unambiguous statement by a society that is ready for change, said Gomez.
"They want to do away with authoritarian-type politics and the introduction of a real democracy.
"Incoming prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has not learnt that lesson if they continue to concentrate power and practise politics that is not democratic and not accountable. This augurs badly for BN.
"As for the opposition there is still fear for this coalition. Electoral trends show that voters do not support DAP when they are in coalition with PAS," said Gomez.
"But trends also show that there is growing support for PAS outside Malay heartland, because it has learnt the need to be more inclusive and accommodative."
This feature, said Gomez, will have to be retained in order for PR to sustain itself.
The opposition also needs to have a serious discussion on party-hopping, which has been practised by both coalitions, said Gomez.
"They need to think this through if they want to sustain a new kind of politics, a just and fair politics which Malaysians have been calling for since 1999."
