Umno’s future in the balance

Everything about Umno’s future is about to come down to the party elections this week. The polls is more than just what the party wants, it is also what people outside of Umno want.

By JOCELINE TAN, The Star

THERE was definitely a special energy in the air at the Umno gathering in Seremban on Thursday night.

It had to do with the fact that this was the final meet-the-delegates session for Umno candidates before everyone heads for the PWTC this week.

The crippling move against Datuk Seri Mohd Ali Rustam also added to the mood, particularly with him up there on the stage wearing a pristine white baju Melayu and songkok, and looking every inch the sacrificial lamb that his supporters are making him out to be. Everywhere he moved, people surged around him trying to hug him and kiss his hand.

Then there was the fact that one of Negri Sembilan’s very own, Khairy Jamaluddin, had also been hauled up and let off with a warning. But the ground sentiment for the Rembau Youth head was harder to read.

The wave of feeling for Ali reflects two things. One, the rather blase attitude of many Umno members towards money politics and, two, the famous Malay sentiment of kesian or sympathy for those struck by ill fortune.

Ali has shown little sign of giving up although he is technically barred from the deputy president race. The appeals board has rejected his appeal and only the supreme council can save him now.

What a difference a day makes. One day, he was up there, almost within touch of the deputy president post and the next, his hopes had been reduced to ashes.

Of the remaining two candidates for deputy president, it would seem that Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib, or Mat Taib, was winning the perception war against Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

Muhyiddin has had to fend off accusations that he was behind Ali’s dilemma but emotions are still running high.

Logically speaking, Muhyiddin has no reason to want Ali out.

As supporters of the Johor man pointed out, he stood a better chance in a three-way fight because the support base of Ali and Mat Taib, two very likeable and accessible men, somewhat overlapped and there had been the possibility of them cancelling each other out at some point.

Own niche

Muhyiddin, on the other hand, has his own niche among the more thinking delegates and the younger set. He is also the preferred choice outside of Umno because public perception is that he has the least political baggage.

But Ali’s exclusion has completely changed the equation for the No. 2 contest and Muhyiddin is struggling to survive.

The No. 2 contest will be very hard to call.

Some thought Muhyiddin looked rather subdued in Seremban.

Mat Taib who, up till a week ago, had looked like a loser, is now suddenly glowing like a possible winner and the gaudy shirt he had on that night helped him stand out from the crowd. When he stepped into the hotel foyer, shouts of “Hidup Mat Taib!” rang out.

His daughter Rina, a willowy beauty, was also there, moving around and thanking people for “supporting my father”.

Everyone has been trying to hop onto the Ali sympathy bandwagon.

Negri Sembilan Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan, in his welcoming address as the host, mentioned Ali three times and drew cheers each time.

But Mohamad, known for his top-notch technocratic style, looked like he would most likely go with Muhyiddin because, in his speech, he rated ability over personality when talking about choosing leaders.

The Mat Taib camp is aware of what they are up against and their SMS campaign has been lauding likeability over ability in typical Malay-speak.

One example: Kalau mencari tempat mandi; pertama telok, kedua pantai. Kalau mencari pemimpin terpuji; pertama elok, kedua pandai (When seeking a place to wash, choose the bay, then the beach. When seeking an outstanding leader, choose the likeable, then the able).

The party elections and, particularly, the hullabaloo over the post of deputy president has almost eclipsed the fact that this Umno general assembly will bid farewell to Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and usher in Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak as the new president and the next Prime Minister.

“It’s going to be a historic occasion,” said former Penang Deputy Chief Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ibrahim Saad.

Abdullah is expected to step down as Prime Minister a few days after the Umno assembly and Najib is to be sworn in as the sixth Prime Minister of Malaysia a day later.

No incoming party president or Prime Minister has had to face a scenario as demanding as what Najib will encounter – an unfolding global recession, political challenges on the homefront and a party labouring under a confidence crisis.

Abdullah inherited a party and government that was riding a popular crest. But Najib will be taking over at the lowest point in the history of the Barisan Nasional and Umno.

“It is a moment he will remember all his life, yet he is about to enter the most formidable stage of his political career,” said a long-time Najib associate.

Najib has often been described as ambitious but his career path hardly suggests that. He entered politics at age 23 and his climb has been so gradual that it took him 32 years to reach the top.

The plus side to this is that he is coming into the job with an unrivalled wealth of experience and this is what he will have to draw from in the months and years ahead.

“He is coming to power at a very trying time in every sense of the word and I don’t envy him,” said Dr Ibrahim.

In an interview with The Star, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said Umno delegates must seize the moment next week and vote in leaders who are clean and capable.

After that, Najib must have the political will to appoint decent people to his Cabinet or else, said the former Premier, it will mean the start of the end for Umno and the ruling coalition.

Najib has also begun dropping hints of the sort of persons he wants in his team.

At an Integrity Institute function earlier this week, he listed the qualities of a leader in the following order – integrity, capability and loyalty.

It was a deliberate order of factors and although some pointed out that he has said those words off the cuff when responding to media questions, those familiar with Najib know he rarely speaks without fore-thought.

He knows that for a politician, loyalty comes first but for a leader, integrity and capability has to predominate.

He was sending out a clear message in the wake of the Umno action against Ali and several others for committing offences during November’s campaign for nominations.

But the way Umno members are still lashing out at the party disciplinary board suggests that the quest to reform Umno will be a long and laboured process.

New team

Party insiders suggest there will be more hints from Najib on the sort of team he wants, and especially regarding his preference for his deputy.

In that sense, his speech when he officiates at the joint opening of the Youth, Wanita and Puteri wings this Tuesday night may be one of the most critical and important in his career.

He has to send out a message that is convincing enough for party delegates to take what he desires to heart and act accordingly.

He has to convince them on the need for a good team and that good individuals make a good team.

Everything about Umno’s future is about to come down to this moment. The next party polls will be after the general election and this is the team that will take the party into the next big fight.

And that is why this party election is more than just what the party wants, it is also what people outside of Umno want.