Three By-elections
If Pakatan Rakyat wishes to take the federal regime, it must not ignore Sarawak, in which 35% of its population is the Dayak group (including Iban and Bidayuh), 25% of it is Chinese, followed by Malays and Melanau.
By LIM SUE GOAN/ Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE/ Sin Chew Daily
Pakatan Rakyat sees the three by-elections as a referendum but the total voters of the three by-elections are only 98,708 people, which is less than one two hundredth of the total population. Therefore, we can only say the by-elections reflect public opinion but with significance for democracy.
The Bukit Gantang parliamentary seat by-election is the first election after the Perak regime change. BN may know the public opinion through the by-election. Meanwhile, the Bukit Selambau state seat by-election would be a public vote on Kedah's PAS government which is going to reflect the people's acceptance of the state government's policies. As for the Batang Ai state seat by-election, its result would convey the message whether the Sarawak political environment has changed.
Pakatan Rakyat is most confident in Bukit Gantang and they have over 60% to win as Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin is being fielded the candidate for PAS. Other than sympathy votes, the mood of last general elections is still with Chinese votes (36.2%). Together with PAS's fixed votes in kampung (villages), it would be difficult for BN to defeat Pakatan Rakyat.
Bukit Selambau is a mixed constituency, with 50.2% of Malay voters. In the last general elections, independent candidate Arumugam defeated BN candidate with 2362 majority votes. So we can see that BN may not have the advantage in mixed constituencies.
Taking into account that non-Malay voters' dissatisfaction against PAS government may not be serious, with up tp 29.53% of Indian votes and the dissatisfaction of party supporters and members against the candidate is not a cause to be concerned, Pakatan Rakyat has big chances to keep the seat.
Batang Ai has only 8006 voters, with 90% of them being Ibans. Thus, BN can use the man-to-man strategy to win.
For Pakatan Rakyat, it would be a major significance to win in Batang Ai, particularly the Dayak constituency as the Opposition has never won any Bumiputra constituency in Sabah and Sarawak. Sarawak BN is firmly in control of Bumiputra votes and rumah panjang seems to be BN's bastion.
If Pakatan Rakyat wishes to take the federal regime, it must not ignore Sarawak, in which 35% of its population is the Dayak group (including Iban and Bidayuh), 25% of it is Chinese, followed by Malays and Melanau. The Dayak faces a devolution of political power because it continues to split. Keadilan must get support from the Dayak and Malays in order to gain the state regime. But the political map of Sarawak has never changed and its Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud will be devoted to prevent this kind of change.
UMNO has expected a possible lost in the two by-elections in Perak and Kedah, but its main consideration is to keep its basic Malay's support. If it loses the basic votes, the regime will be in a precarious situation. Would UMNO's current unity affect the Malay community?
