Prophets of doom follow Najib into office

A popular Malaysian prophecy holds that the ruling United Malays National Organisation will meet its downfall after the country's sixth prime minister.

It is known as the Rahman prophecy, after Abdul Rahman, the first prime minister, whose second name is said to spell out the first initial of his five successors. To the superstitious, it has proved uncannily accurate in predicting the nation's leaders since independence from Britain in 1957. That may be a cause of concern to Najib Razak, who was sworn in as Malaysia's sixth prime minister yesterday.

The unpopularity of the man and his party have led many analysts to predict that his government could be defeated in the next elections, due by 2013.

Even before taking office, Mr Najib has had unusually low approval ratings, with only 41 per cent of Malaysians saying he would make a good prime minister, against 47 per cent for Abdullah Badawi, his ineffectual predecessor, according to Merdeka Centre, an independent pollster.

Some of that antipathy can be attributed to vicious rumours circulating about Mr Najib. Some critics link his name to the murder of a Mongolian model and mistress of one of his closest advisers, who has since been cleared of any involvement in the killing. Weapons contracts awarded during his tenure as defence minister have been questioned for alleged corruption. The allegations have dominated campaigning for a by-election seen as a referendum on his administration.

"There are so many accusations and allegations. God willing, I can manage it. They are not true; they are malicious, slanderous, baseless lies," said Mr Najib after he was elected last week as head of Umno, the final step to becoming prime minister.

Malaysia's ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities have more substantial doubts about Mr Najib. He has been a staunch defender of giving preferential treatment to the ethnic Malay majority in government and business, a policy introduced by his father when he was prime minister in the early 1970s.

The discontent among minorities has led them to back a resurgent opposition, led by Anwar Ibrahim.

It fears that Mr Najib will preside over a return to "Mahathirism", the tough and confrontational style conducted by his mentor, Mahathir Mohamad, the long-serving prime minister in the 1980s and 1990s.

Mr Najib has sought to assume the mantle of reform by promising to clean up Umno, which is seen as corrupt and out of touch with the public. He is also trying to reassure the country's minorities that he will change the pro-Malay policy to benefit other races. That reflects the influence of his brother, Nazir Razak, the head of state-owned CIMB, Malaysia's second largest bank, who said the proMalay policy discouraged foreign investment and created resentment among minorities.

"Nazir is a well-respected figure and is likely to play a pivotal role in advising on economic policy," says Vincent Khoo, equity research head at Maybank.

Ultimately, however, it could be Malaysia's worst postwar recession that topples Mr Najib, says the opposition. "The economy is Najib's Achilles heel. Young Malays are drifting away from racial politics. The economic crisis will reveal that the income gap between rich and poor among all races is the real issue – and that will undermine Najib," said an adviser to Mr Anwar.