For BN, the battle is bigger than Penanti
(The Edge) It was not so long ago that Malaysians would have thought it impossible for the Barisan Nasional (BN) not to contest in a by-election. Prior to March 8, 2008, when the opposition made unprecedented inroads into the BN's territory, the ruling coalition would have fielded a candidate even in opposition strongholds just to reinforce its reputation as the undisputed choice of an overwhelming majority of the people.
Today, that certainty has somewhat faded, and BN chairman and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has found it expedient to declare that the ruling coalition will give the March 31 contest for the Penanti state seat a miss.
While there are no dearth of voices that will amplify the significance of the BN's concession of the seat to the nascent Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition, it is worth considering what Najib's decision implies about the new prime minister.
Firstly, for Najib to back off from a contest in Penanti, he had to contend with the possibility that former premier Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad would launch a vitriolic attack against him for damaging the BN's standing as an immutable presence in the national political landscape. By doing the hitherto unthinkable, Najib can claim to be his own man, despite persistent opinions that he keeps Mahathir's counsel.
Secondly, the futility of contesting in a seat that is within the stronghold of Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's constituency is only too clear. So, there is really little to be gained by Najib and the BN by participating in a contest where it is certain to lose, and in all probability, by an even bigger margin, as the trend has been in the by-elections following the 12th general election.
Indeed, the PR would be able to make political capital out of the situation to support its contention that the popular tide is now flowing in its favour. Tactically speaking, therefore, it would be wiser to deny PR that opportunity.
Thirdly, the psychological damage that the BN troops would suffer from experiencing an additional defeat should not be underestimated. As the lessons of war have shown, a leader needs to be keenly tuned to the mood of his soldiers, lest a mutiny should breed among the cavalry while the single-minded general is bent on defying the odds.
That said, the challenge facing Najib is to find a new source of inspiration to rally BN around for the bigger battle, which it must face in the next general election. There are powerful advantages that incumbency gives to the ruling coalition and Najib must use them to greatest effect in the time remaining before that decisive showdown.
