A tame affair with BN out of Penanti race?

EVEN the most seasoned politicians find it hard to imagine what campaigning will be like for the Penanti by-election.

By Zubaidah Abu Bakar (NST)

The official campaign kicks off tomorrow, after nominations close, as soon as the returning officer announces there will be a contest for the Penang state seat.

From then until the eve of polling on May 31, the parties involved in the electoral battle can reach out to the predominantly Malay voters in the semi-rural constituency.

Will Barisan Nasional, having decided to skip the Parti Keadilan Rakyat-induced by-election, somehow still make its presence felt in Penanti? Suggestions are that BN will sponsor an independent candidate so as not to give a walkover to PKR, but these have been quashed by Umno leaders.

Political observers argue that BN cannot afford to sit back and allow PKR to reign, attacking the coalition from all corners, without rebuttal.

Political parties are known to have campaigned in more subtle ways in past by-elections where their candidates were not contesting. Cases in point include the Ketari by-election in 2002 and Batu Talam in 2007, both in Pahang.

The contest in Ketari was between BN and DAP, but leaders of the then Barisan Alternatif, which comprised Pas, PKR and Parti Rakyat Malaysia, were down campaigning against their common enemy, BN.

In Batu Talam, it was a contest between Umno/BN and an independent candidate, but opposition leaders were also out campaigning.

If things fall into place in Penanti, there will be a three-cornered contest involving the PKR and two independent candidates.

The PKR candidate is likely to be Penang PKR deputy chairman Mansor Othman, 56, and the independent candidates are businessman Mohd Saberi Othman, 49, and former Penang Parti Keadilan Nasional Wanita chief Aminah Abdullah, 56.

Penanti's 15,384 electors, who will be voting for the second time since the 2008 general election, comprise 72.68 per cent Malays, 24.22 per cent Chinese, 2.39 per cent Indians and 0.71 per cent other communities. They are part of the electorate in the Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituency, who were involved in a by-election on Aug 26 last year; Penanti being one of the three state constituencies in Permatang Pauh along with Seberang Jaya and Permatang Pasir.

As in Permatang Pauh, Penanti voters were sent to the polls again because the representative they elected vacated the seat in the interestA of the political party he represented.

Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail had relinquished the Permatang Pauh parliamentary seat to pave the way for her husband Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's comeback into mainstream politics.

Former Penang deputy chief minister 1 Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin was forced out, resigning as Penanti assemblyman because of internal squabbling in PKR.

The other PKR-induced by-election was Bukit Selambau, where its representative A. Arumugam relinquished the seat following an expose regarding his marriages.

Now that BN is out of the picture in the by-election, many questions are being raised. Most pertinent is the voting pattern: PKR won Penanti in the general election in 1999, lost it to BN in 2004, and grabbed it back last year.

For whom will Umno/BN members and supporters vote? Penanti having been for long an Umno seat, will Umno direct its members to vote for an independent candidate?

According to Penang Umno liaison committee secretary Datuk Azhar Ibrahim, the party is leaving it to its supporters to decide. BN supporters also have the choice of staying away from the polls, although this should not be the case as the coalition upholds democracy and an election, held for whatever reason, is part of the democratic process.

Refraining from exercising their democratic right would reduce voter turnout, a situation in normal circumstances not favoured by the Election Commission.

In the Permatang Pauh by-election, registered Umno members had given their votes to Anwar. Will we see a repeat in Penanti?

Against this backdrop and with an assurance from PKR elections director Saifuddin Nasution Ismail that there will be no BN-bashing in Penanti, it's premature to say that this by-election will be a tame affair.

The impasse in Perak, too, may bear on voters' choices when they go to the ballot.

According to Machang member of parliament Saifuddin, Pakatan's focus will be on the success stories of Penang and other Pakatan states. As Perak is still a Pakatan state as far as the opposition coalition is concerned, there is no way BN will be spared when the Perak issue is played during campaigning.

Pakatan Rakyat is confident it will retain the seat. Says Saifuddin: "Instead of buying RM30 petrol, we now only need to buy RM5 of petrol to keep us moving from now until polling. We consider Penanti a dry run for our election machinery."

Besides the contest taking place on Anwar's turf, Pakatan Rakyat's confidence is boosted by the findings of surveys it conducted on Penanti voters, which indicated that "73 per cent" of Malays there were generally happy with the Penang state government under DAP's Lim Guan Eng.

While PKR winning Penati is all but certain with BN's pullout, Mansor, according to the same survey, is much less popular than Permatang Pauh Umno division chief and former Penanti assemblyman Datuk Abdul Jalil Abdul Majid.

Ninety per cent of the respondents knew who Jalil was, compared with only 45 per cent who knew Mansor, who in the past two weeks has been attending 10 to 15 programmes a day to touch base with the people. Penanti folk might still see intensive campaigning despite BN not being in the race, as winning with a huge majority is Pakatan's ultimate goal.