Victory in Pas land possible
UMNO and Pas will again battle for the Malay ground, this time in Pas-ruled Kelantan with the passing of the Manik Urai state assemblyman on Friday.
By Zubaidah Abu Bakar (NST)
In this almost exclusively Malay state constituency, only an X factor will see Umno take the seat from Pas.
Some of those following Kelantan's political developments have ruled out a repeat of 2004, when Manik Urai was wrested from Pas by a 53-vote majority.
Barisan Nasional, they say, should not count on recapturing the state seat. It would be good enough for the coalition to reduce the majority won by the late Ismail Yaacob last year, they add.
Ismail defeated BN's Mohamed Zulkifli Omar with a majority of 1,352 votes.
To start the uphill climb, Umno will need to offer something new and better to the voters — which Kelantan Umno has failed to do since Pas took control of the state in 1990.
In last year's general election, Kelantan's 735,531 voters mostly rejected the BN offer of a forward-looking government.
Whereas the BN promised balanced social, economic and religious development plus RM10 billion to achieve it, Pas' spartan ambition of seeing Kelantan people live modestly still found favour.
The naming of technocrat Datuk Dr Awang Adek Hussin as future menteri besar was not enough to persuade the people to make the change.
Yet victory in general elections since 1990 was not only about blind loyalty to the revered Tok Guru Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat. Internal division in Kelantan Umno was a big contributing factor.
"Pas has benefited from the infighting within Umno," said director of Merdeka Centre research group Ibrahim Suffian after last year's general election.
In the present woeful climate, it has quietly been suggested that Umno concede Manik Urai to lower the political temperature in the country.
But Umno leaders like newly-appointed Kelantan liaison chief Datuk Mustapa Mohamed and secretary-general Datuk Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor believe BN has a fighting chance.
The Election Commission will meet on Thursday to decide the dates for nomination and polling.
"BN needs a miracle to win in Manik Urai. It can contest and put up a good fight by fielding a candidate who is acceptable to the locals and working to reduce the majority," said Professor Mohamed Mustaffa Ishak of Universiti Utara Malaysia.
Manik Urai voters have been comfortable with the political culture propagated by Pas over the 19 years the state has been in the party's sway.
In fact, their close association with Pas came earlier, in 1986 to be exact, when Ismail first won the seat. He has been their representative in all elections since, except in 2004.
Even when the seat fell narrowly into Umno's hands in 2004, Pas' presence was keenly felt.
The Kuala Krai parliamentary constituency, of which Manik Urai is part, is held by Pas national treasurer Dr Abdul Hatta Mohd Ramli.
Pas also controls two other state seats in Kuala Krai — Dabung and Mengkebang — while Guchil was won by Parti Keadilan Rakyat.
The last by-election in Kelantan was for the Pengkalan Pasir state constituency in Pasir Mas in December 2005, following the death of Pas assemblyman Wan Abdul Aziz Wan Jaafar on Oct 31.
The contest was won by Hanafi Mamat of the BN with a majority of 134 votes. He beat Hanifah Ahmad of Pas and independent Datuk Ibrahim Ali.
Kelantan Umno under Mustapa can take heart that a repeat of 2004 in Manik Urai or Pengkalan Pasir a year later will not be impossible.
