Where will Umno votes go?
THAT Parti Keadilan Rakyat will not be challenged by Umno in Penanti is already certain.
By Zubaidah Abu Bakar (NST)
What is not certain and a cause for worry to Barisan Nasional is where the Umno votes will go in Sunday's by-election.
The voting pattern will have a bearing on the strength of the support of the Malays for Umno (in an indirect way) and its splinter party PKR, as Malays make up 72.68 per cent of voters in Penanti. (Chinese make up 24.22 per cent, Indians 2.39 per cent and other communities 0.71 per cent.)
A big majority win for PKR candidate Dr Mansor Othman could mean declining Malay support for Umno and a sign that the Malays are now warming up to the multi-racial approach that PKR is promoting.
Hence, some pertinent questions have become hot topics of discussion among politicians and political watchers. They include:
– Whether Umno supporters will throw their support behind Mansor, as they did for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in the Permatang Pauh by-election last year;
– Whether they, for whatever reason, will give their votes to the three lightweight independent candidates; and
– Whether they will choose to boycott the by-election altogether, since BN is not contesting on the grounds that it is forced on Penanti voters and part of PKR's political game.
"Umno members will still go out to vote but it will be for one of the independents," political analyst Professor James Chin of Monash University Malaysia reckons.
Chin believes Umno supporters will vote for "fun" and to reduce the margin of PKR's victory because "if the margin is small, it will be a victory for BN".
But a Permatang Pauh Umno divisional leader wants to see Umno/BN supporters boycott the by-election.
"Why must they vote for candidates who are not endorsed by BN?" he asks.
His view is also shared by other divisional leaders in private and they are said to be going round encouraging voters, Umno and BN supporters and fence sitters, to stay away.
They argue that a low voter turnout would make PKR realise that the people were not interested in being part of PKR's political game.
Umno, explained Permatang Pauh division leader Datuk Abdul Jalil Abdul Majid, was not going to issue any directive to its members.
It will however, from today, intensify its information sessions with the grassroots to explain why BN had opted to skip the by-election.
"We will not put pressure on voters who want to exercise their voting rights, we are leaving it to their wisdom," said Jalil, who won Penanti in 2004 but failed to retain the seat in 2008.
Fear that Umno members would once again vote for PKR is supported by the fact that only 10,700 of the 90,800 registered voters in Permatang Pauh, had voted for BN during the Permatang Pauh by-election.
There is also concern that there may be low voter turnout because only about 1,000 Pakatan Rakyat supporters turned up at the nomination centre on Saturday, compared with tens of thousands in previous contests.
The low-decibel by-election has been dubbed "Permatang Pauh II" because the 15,384 voters registered in Penanti, one of the three state seats in Permatang Pauh (the others being Seberang Jaya and Permatang Pasir) will go to the ballot box for the second time since the general election last year.
The risk here is that voters may get bored and not come out to vote. Pakatan Rakyat's supporters too may become complacent since Mansor's victory is widely said to be a foregone conclusion. The other contenders are former Penang PKR Wanita chief Aminah Abdullah, company manager Nai Khan Ari Nai Keow and motivational expert Kamarul Ramizu Idris.
"There is no slowing down in campaigning despite a sure win for us. We are mobilising our machinery to the fullest because our aim is not only to win but to win with a huge majority," said PKR election director Saifuddin Nasution Ismail.
At a ceramah in Taman Guar Perahu on Sunday, Anwar, Pas president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang and DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang asked Penanti voters to send a strong signal that they reject BN by giving more votes for the opposition pact.
But Umno members have their own minds and eligible voters are likely to have made up their minds on what to do on polling day.
