If it’s the economy can Pakatan match up with BN?

(The Malaysian Insider) Pakatan Rakyat (PR) should be concerned.

No, not about the shabby turnout of voters in the Penanti by-election or the perverse logic by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin that Barisan Nasional (BN) was the real victor in Sunday’s electoral contest.

Or the chest thumping editorials in the mainstream media on how BN had a significant impact on the by-election even without fielding a candidate.

The 46.1 per cent turnout was the result of a one-sided contest.

Teams play in sparsely populated stadia when the outcome of a competition has been settled. So it was expected that many voters would not get out of their night clothes on a lazy Sunday once it became clear that PKR’s Mansor Othman was running against himself.

Muhyiddin’s bombast is akin to Tyson Gay sitting out the 100 metre dash and then rejoicing because Usain Bolt did not shatter the world record.

It is just another logic busting statement by a ruling coalition politician.

And about the boast in the mainstream media, while it is true that no one stood on the BN ticket in Penanti, judging by the space given to her accusations of bribery in the newspapers, no one could be faulted for reaching the conclusion that Aminah Abdullah was a proxy BN candidate.

She was trounced, losing her deposit and self respect among voters who viewed her as nothing more than a plant by the ruling coalition.

Even if the turnout had been 80 per cent, she would have ended up donating her deposit to the Election Commission.

So disregard all the sour grape comments by the BN.

Penanti has come and gone and Pakatan Rakyat is celebrating another by-election victory, the fifth since Election 2008.

But Pakatan Rakyat should be concerned — by the green shoots of confidence a growing number of Malaysians have in the direction of the economy and the Najib administration’s handling of the economy.

The headline figure in a survey by the Merdeka Center, an independent polling house, showed that only 45 per cent of Malaysians were satisfied with his performance as the prime minister.

Nearly 40 per cent did not want to answer the question, perhaps out of fear or due to the short period he has been in power.

Quite clearly, Najib is not benefitting from the bounce which usually accompanies a new leader into office.

Much of this is down to the baggage he lugged into office, some down to the residue of anger and cynicism among Malaysians after years of broken promises of the Abdullah administration.

Still, Opposition leaders would do well to look beyond the headline statistic and examine other parts of the survey closely.

Especially the parts that show that the economy is the main concern of Malaysians and in that sphere there is growing support for the administration.

In March, 35 per cent of the Malaysians felt that the country was in the right direction and 36 per cent were satisfied with the state of the nation.

The recent survey of 1.076 Malaysians shows that these figures have improved to 42 per cent and 51 per cent respectively.

The confidence in the Malaysian economy has inched up from 24 per cent in March to 39 per cent in May while 47 per cent per cent of those polled expressed optimism that the economy will be in a better state a year from now, compared with 31 per cent in a similar poll done in March.

The point is that if the Najib administration’s handling of the economic downturn inspires more confidence on the ground, more fence-sitters (those voters who are not strongly affiliated to any political party) may be willing to give Umno/BN a wider berth.

This swing could have an impact on voting trends in future.