Spinning the Penanti victory

ARCHIVES 2009

By admin-s On Jun 2, 2009

By Shanon Shah (The Nut Graph)

ON paper, the 5,558-vote winning majority of Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR)'s Dr Mansor Othman during the recently concluded Penanti by-election looks stunning. Indeed, it is more than a two-fold increase of the 2,219-vote majority polled by Mansor's predecessor, Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin, during the March 2008 general election.

In fact, at 6,052 votes, Mansor polled 85% of the total votes cast on 31 May 2009.

But here is the cold water that has been poured on Mansor's parade: only 7,101 voters out of the 15,384 registered voters in Penanti bothered to vote on polling day. The Elections Commission (EC) has confirmed that at 46%, this is one of the lowest voter turnouts in Malaysia's history.

But the Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) are not analysing these figures with any nuance or circumspection. To the PR, Mansor's victory is a "clear mandate" from Penanti voters — end of story. The BN and especially Umno, on the other hand, yawn at Mansor's win since the low voter turnout apparently means the majority of voters are tired of PKR's "politicking".

Nevertheless, to the ordinary citizen, now would be a good time to actually crunch some numbers and ask what they actually mean. For instance, even though Mansor's majority was impressive, it really means that he only received support from 39% of the entire registered electorate. That's not a "clear mandate" by any stretch of the imagination.

But wait, there's more. According to the Stockholm-based intergovernmental organisation, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, there were 15.2 million Malaysians who were of voting age in 2008. However, of this number, only 10.9 million, or 71%, had officially registered to vote.

So, if we take this into account, this could mean that the 15,384 registered voters in Penanti only represent 71% of the total number of eligible voters in Penanti. This would mean then that there are actually 21,667 eligible voters in Penanti. If that is the case, then Mansor only has the support of 28% of the total number of eligible voters in his constituency.

Mansor

Also, for a constituency that has been dubbed a PKR "stronghold", a 39% approval rate among registered voters sounds like the pickings are actually a lot slimmer than what people may assume. Of course, it is clear, as asserted by PKR elections strategist Saifuddin Nasution, that approval from PKR's hardcore supporters remains intact. But what of the BN's supporters and, more importantly, the fence-sitters? Why exactly did they stay home on polling day?

Why didn't they vote?

And this is where the BN's claim that these voters were sick of PKR's politicking also does not hold water. When a voter stays away from the ballot box, we have to first of all ask, was the voter coerced or induced to stay away, or did he or she stay at home voluntarily? Already, a big hoo-ha has been made about Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin's remark urging Penanti voters to stay home on 31 May. Were voters convinced by Khairy's call?

But more importantly, asking people not to vote is an offence under the Election Offences Act. Did Khairy commit such an offence? That is a question the EC has to answer.