Opposition politics shaken after PAS vote

Reme Ahmad thinks that the PR alliance will have to stick with the Islamist party, cleric-led or not.

Reme Ahmad, The Straits Times

THE results of the internal elections of Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) have shaken up Malaysia's opposition politics.

It has also stirred keen interest from Umno and Barisan Nasional, which can now be expected to sniff out opportunities to break up, or at least weaken, the three-party Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance.

The members of PR are Anwar Ibrahim's multiracial Parti Keadilan Rakyat, Chinese-based Democratic Action Party and PAS, Islam-based Malay party.

The role of PAS is important as, with nearly 1 million members, it is the second biggest political organisation in Malaysia after Umno.

The opposition has been pushing Umno and BN to the wall since scoring big wins in general elections last year.

But now there is uncertainty in the opposition camp.

In the PAS elections held every two years, the conservative pro-ulama (Muslim cleric) faction has won.

On Saturday, the liberal-leaning, pro-PR faction suffered a big setback, after its candidate for the No. 2 post lost.

This means that both the posts of PAS president and deputy president remain in the hands of the clerics.

And the Youth wing is now dominated by many from the pro-cleric faction.

These leaders are wary of working with Anwar and PR, and are not averse to talking with Umno to strengthen Malay-Muslim political power.

This does not mean that PAS will leave the PR alliance. Or that it will suddenly run to Umno.

What it means is that PAS members have signalled to PR to slow down on issues that are seen as weakening Malay and Muslim rights in Malaysia.

While all PAS members hate Umno, there are also points where they can agree with one another.

These include in such issues as keeping Islam as the pre-eminent religion in Malaysia, on religious conversions, and protecting the institution of the Malay rulers, 

There is also some uneasiness among a section of the Islamist party of the strong push by DAP for equal rights for everything – ie the dismantling of the Bumiputera policy.

PAS members of course loath the excesses of the policy as practiced by Umno, but there is support for some of the other parts of the policy – like reserving places in educational institutions for Bumis.

And many in PAS are unhappy that the biggest party, member-wise, it is being looked upon as a junior member of the three-party PR.

This situation arises because PAS has the least number of Parliament seats. PKR has the most, followed by the DAP.

PAS members have privately said that without its help in the last elections, in many districts the PKR and DAP did not have enough people to put up buntings and flags.

The party has of course heard of the threats that the Chinese and the Indians will not vote for PAS any more if it turns "more Islamic".

But this does not cut much ice with the Islamist party.

It has shown in recent years that with just its Malay base, it won Kelantan, Terengganu and made big gains in Kedah and Perlis.  

And come the next general elections in 2013, PKR and DAP know that without PAS, the coalition will be much weaker.

A DAP-PKR combo would retain Penang, but would likely lose Perak and Selangor.

And PAS alone cannot hold onto Kedah, although it could expect to sail to an easy win in Kelantan, and maybe even retake Terengganu.

And threats that at the next elections that Chinese and Indian voters will not vote for PAS may not work either.

This is because if they abandoned PAS, then their choice is to vote for Umno and BN.

Or to stay out of the ballot box and allow Umno and BN to win.