Going Alone

PAS is essential to Pakatan, just as DAP and PKR are. The opposition coalition can only be optimally effective when they work together.

By Hakim Joe

I have written and commented quite a few times that Pakatan is quite incapable of forming the next federal government with only two political parties namely DAP and PKR. Without PAS and its coterie of Islamic fundamentalists, BN will run riot the next time we go to the polls. 

I am sure more than a few readers will rebuke me for this statement but even BN agrees with the truth of the matter; why else the unity talks if they are singly capable of obtaining the mandate of the voters? Does anyone really believe that UMNO is capable of sharing power? 

PAS is essential to Pakatan, just as DAP and PKR are. The opposition coalition can only be optimally effective when they work together. BN recognizes this fact and their attempts at influencing PAS grassroots are merely a sinister ploy to disrupt the partnership in its buildup to the next federal elections. For Pakatan to work it must show the people that it has the potential to be the representative of all Malaysians, and to portray itself as a just and impartial party that is seen to be doing things that benefit society and not just a single race or itself. 

PAS now has 23 parliamentarians which accounts for 28% of the total opposition parliamentarians (DAP has 28 and PKR has 31). 23 is not a big figure considering the fact that Malaysia has 222 parliamentary seats but a Pakatan without PAS will only be left with 59 parliamentary seats. In such a scenario, Pakatan would need an additional 53 parliamentary seats to be able to form a simple majority government. Obtaining 59 seats in Parliament is already a milestone, let alone another 53 additional seats. 

With PAS in the opposition’s fold, Pakatan only requires an additional 30 seats and that is a more realistic goal. Another 10 additional parliamentary seats from Perak alone is not impossible now, thanks to the Judiciary and HRH. That leaves an additional 20 seats from the rest of the peninsular states (forget about East Malaysia). Johor and Terengganu will feature prominently in this aspect, what with the swing towards Pakatan representatives. 

There is currently only 1 single (lonely) Pakatan parliamentarian from Johor and 2 from Pahang out of a total of 26 seats and 14 seats respectively. That’s merely 3 seats from a possible 40 seats. In 2008, nobody believed that the opposition parties were capable of such a feat as illustrated after all the ballots were tallied. The next federal elections will be different as the voters would have determined that their votes do count for something and the possibility of a change of government becomes a feasible reality.  

The coalition between PKR, PAS and DAP is a disparity that only transpired out of necessity. Pakatan was not even formed during the last federal election but only established itself after the number of opposition held seats showed that a union could prove beneficial to the opposition parties. While a lot more people would not vote PAS in 2008, they will now. 

With the onset of online reporting and forums, the truth is suddenly there for all to see. Even with the pro-BN dailies reporting otherwise, a sense of “distrust” of what is reported on print media would have sowed the seeds of suspicion on an educated reader and this might actually be the factoring impetus which will cast reasonable doubt on a voter continuing to pledge their support for BN. 

However, the issue is not of what is being understood (or not) but of the numbers game. Regardless of whether PAS enters into an agreement with BN to form a unity federal government or remains independent of both BN and Pakatan, obtaining 112 parliamentary seats might prove to be too high a mountain to climb for both DAP and PKR. There remains the fact if PAS enters into a coalition with BN, their number of parliamentary seats would soar to a whooping 163 or almost three-quarters of the total available seats. If PAS remains independent, there would be three-way contests all round the country and this could prove disastrous to the opposition, PAS included. 

Henceforth the only possibility of handing BN a defeat is by working together. PAS could never form a government by themselves until BN is defunct and neither could PKR or DAP go at it alone; not now anyway. Forming a unity government would only retard democracy and everybody knows that being a “junior” coalition member in BN is not what it is cut out to be.