The State of Political Affairs

ARCHIVES 2009

By admin-s On Jun 20, 2009

UMNO has the most parliamentarians in Malaysia (79) but one would be surprised that the next political party that has the most representatives in parliament is not MCA or PBB. In fact the next three political parties after UMNO are PKR (31), DAP (28) and PAS (23).

By Hakim Joe

Even though it has been more than a year since the Political Tsunami, let us get back to the number games again.

These top four are then followed by MCA (15) and PBB (14) respectively. The rest possesses only single figure parliamentary representation with SUPP and PRS (6 each), SPDP (4), MIC, PBS, UPKO and SAPP (3 each), Gerakan (2), LDP and PBRS (1 each).

PPP failed to even win one single parliamentary seat and the Seenivasagam legacy is all but finished and forgotten. Even Pakatan does not want them, which is not surprising, and Gerakan has spurned PPP’s proposal for a merger.

The biggest losers in the 2008 elections are undoubtedly the Chinese-based MCA and Gerakan. MIC was already in the decline and will continue its downward fall towards obscurity partly due to the lower representation in terms of voters and their demographic. Having an outdated and questionable president that does not want to leave exacerbates the problem.

MCA and Gerakan are seen to be junior (not equal) members of the BN coalition and this does not ride well with the Chinese voters and hence the migration of preference to the opposition parties. Even the changing of the guard in MCA will prove to be a waste of time and effort as their actions belies the amount of manipulation and control from UMNO. MCA will continue to lose ground unless they pull out from the BN coalition, which is highly unlikely. PGRM is likewise akin to MIC whereby the president is but a figurehead with its strings being pulled by UMNO. As with PPP, Gerakan is slowly disintegrating and will soon fade to black.

UMNO is only represented in Sabah and not in Sarawak. With the East Malaysian states sporting a total of 56 parliamentary seats (or 25 percent of the total available parliamentary seats), it is not surprising that indigenous residents are accorded Bumiputra status even though most of them are not Muslims. With 13 representatives in Sabah and zero in Sarawak, UMNO must rely on the local political parties to deliver the crucial seats for BN. Any mass migration of parliamentarians to the opposition camp will dislodge them as the federal government. They know it and so does the East Malaysian political parties.

The primary reason why the East Malaysian states are kept under-developed is because UMNO requires the voters to be ignorant. As it has been proven conclusively that uninformed voters tend to vote BN, this is exactly the type of situation it wants to retain. Any modernization of East Malaysian states will bright about a negative aspect to BN and that is why the carrot and the stick are utilized to the tilt here.

The West Malaysian states are another different scenario altogether. Here, UMNO promotes racial based politics to attract the voters. The opposition are portrayed as anti-establishment devils that cannot be trusted with the reins of governance. In the constituencies where the number of Malay voters are not dominant, either MCA or MIC are sent it to do the groundwork. Expect quite a few changes to constituency borders (gerrymandering) as both MCA and MIC are now incapable of the tasks accorded them. If the common people know this as a fact, it is certain that UMNO knows it as well.

The opposition parties are not actually enjoying smooth sailing either. The Perak Fiasco may have been a rallying point but it is a situation that need not have happened in the first place. The verdict? It shows just how dominant and ruthless UMNO can be. Additionally, it shows that the civil service, the royalty, the judiciary and the enforcement agencies to be pro-BN. When the Constitution can be warped to such an extent that it becomes legal policy, it demonstrates just how determined UMNO can be to hold on to power, regardless of its dire consequences.

Furthermore, the fielding of suspect candidates (who later won) is a recipe for disaster as exhibited in the transformation of these humans into frogs. If a 20 odd years opposition member (Jelapang) can do the jump, what about new members still wet behind the ears?

A lot of people do not realize this but the State representatives are critical to the Federal Elections. A voter usually votes for the same party in both the state and federal ballots, unless the party is not represented. Therefore, what the ADUN does (or not) in their constituency is characterized by the political party they deem to represent. Permit me to elaborate: An ADUN who fails his or her constituency is likely to promote the loss of the critical parliamentary votes as well, as they are closer to the voters than the parliamentary representative.

Having a party leader with the sword of Damocles hanging over his head is not good either. It is rather fortunate that both the local and the international consensus points to a miscarriage of justice (more like a set up) but the reality of the fact is that it disrupts the party moving forward. Time and effort that can be spent promoting the party will now be spent in lawyers’ offices and court rooms.

PAS is also in disarray as shown by their hierarchy being involved in the unity talks with UMNO. While it may be good to know that Tok Guru is totally against such a move and that 10 PAS Member of Parliament has attested to be in opposition to the unity talks, there remains another 13 PAS parliamentarians that have failed to declare this and the results of the PAS VP elections. No doubt that the success of this unity talks will gain them instant entry into the government. Have they forgotten about the last time PAS teamed up with UMNO or is the lure of power and riches beyond imagination a feasible reason to disregard the party manifesto?

DAP is also in the woods after losing Perak. While Penang is struggling with the MPSB debacle, the government is withholding federal funds from them. Without essential funds to develop the state, some voters might return to voting for BN. About the only good thing going for them is that winning Perak in the next elections is a forgone conclusion.

How then can Pakatan go forward from here? As mentioned in the earlier paragraphs, the East Malaysian states have a total of 56 parliamentary seats with Pakatan only represented by a mere 2 seats. Unless Pakatan starts recruiting indigenous politicians to represent their cause, it will remain a bastion of BN. 56 seats is just too large a number to ignore! Additionally, the leaders of Pakatan need to vet their prospective candidates properly. Frogs are intolerable. Look also to the tasks all opposition ADUNs are doing and gauge properly their impact on the community as this is representative of Pakatan. Neglect them at your own peril. Furthermore, no more unity talks and punish those who are willing to sell their soul for titles and riches. Impart a united front for all to see and win the confidence of the people.