A Blogger’s analysis of the Manik Urai by-election

The amount of money that changed hands was simply unbelievably high that almost every household can have a one-month holiday to savour their fortune.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

You may have noticed that I have been very silent on the issue of the Manik Urai by-election. I did not even offer a prediction of the results like I did in the last few by-elections — which were quite spot on if I can be allowed to boast a bit here. Basically, what more can I say that I have not already said? It would be just a case of more of the same thing.

Now that the by-election is over, many theories and analysis have come to the surface. The old adage of everyone is an expert on hindsight rings true here. But which of the many ‘findings’ would be considered prudent? Was the Manik Urai by-election a setback for the opposition? Was it a continuation of the losing streak for the ruling coalition? Who actually won and who lost? The jury appears out on this issue and both sides claim victory while declaring the other side the loser.

Sure, it was an almost 50:50 situation. A mere few-vote difference and it would have been a draw. Some would say no one actually won. Some say Umno, yet again, lost. Some say, considering the margin PAS won the last time around, this can be construed as a defeat for PAS.

Some try to analyse why PAS ‘lost’. Was it because of the controversial proposed unity talks with UMNO? Was it because PAS is now divided internally? Was it because of the infighting within the Pakatan Rakyat coalition? Was it a message the voters were sending to the opposition coalition that they are fed up and no longer support Pakatan Rakyat the way they did one year ago?

Many complex formulae are being bandied about. But could it have been just one simple issue, the issue of money? I have seen even ‘giants’ like Hadi Awang and Mustapha Ali brought down by a mere RM50 per voter and a piece of kain batik. And these are the kingpins of PAS mind you. Yet RM50 and a piece of cloth is all it takes to defeat them in the general election.

I do not really want to offer my own analysis of things. To do so would mean I would have to be very critical of the Malays. I would also have to be very critical of the Muslims and declare them hypocrites who do not adhere to true Islamic teachings. Then our Malay readers who say that Malaysia Today is nothing but a Malay-Islam-bashing website and nothing more than that.

But how do I not criticise the Malays? How do I not declare Malays as fake Muslims who talk so much about Islam but do not walk the talk? Has not Manik Urai proven what I have been saying all along?

I have chosen as ‘my analysis’ this piece by Wandering Troubadour called The other side of the story. I feel this best describes what happened in Manik Urai and I have very little to add to this analysis.

The other side of the story
by Wandering Troubadour
http://wandering-troubadour.blogspot.com/

Armchair warriors who wrote comments on the Manik Urai by-election sitting comfortably from their study rooms based on information that they skimmed through the Internet at best hit the outer ring of the target if not missing hitting the board at all! It is interesting to note that many did simply just that — write from afar basing their opinions on those who make a living on writing news.

I was there smack in the middle of the war, espionages and counter-strikes. And BN has never been dirtier.

The amount of money that changed hands with voters was simply unbelievably high that almost every household can have a one-month holiday to savour their fortune. Only the Almighty knows the extent of their guilt and no mortal soul can claim that what they did was immoral, as nobody knows who voted for whom, at least for most of us that is.

It is amazing what money can buy. Maybe RM50 per voter did not work anymore but RM500 hooked even the very hearts that loathe corruption. They reason in their heads that it was a gift and hence free from any sin whatsoever associated with it. It was a meagre sum to the haves but a windfall to the haves-not. For a household with three voters, they took home a month’s equivalent of a wage.

But in a climate of distrust alternative plans were laid in abundance. Coming from multiple sources, voters were spoilt for bounties. Some walked away with three sets of gifts each giving a person’s take-home present of RM1,500. All one had to do was to wait for the go-between to approach him or her. It was a case of supply outstripping demand.

Keeping people (read voters) at poverty level and on the brink of starvation almost always pays in the end. They can easily be bought. After all it is not often such a by-election comes their way. Opportunity comes-a-knocking, it is a gift from above.

RM500 per voter was at most RM5Million. Considering three sources each armed with RM10Million, a total of RM30Million were spent with RM15Million going directly to voters and the rest as usual fall off the gravy trains into the hands of local warlords.

The majority of the people were veiled by beauty of dough and sweet smell of the ringgit and simply cast aside wafer thin belief in favour of worldly reward. Greed and selfishness are traits of human beings that will inevitably surface when income is scarce and food is hard to come by. BN knows this very well since their very existence and struggle is about nothing but money.

Analysts are coming out with a host of reasons for PAS’s dismal performance or BN’s success in gaining more territories. Some attributed BN’s “success” to Najib’s 11 points reward to people for allowing him to remain up to 100 days in power and also his “contributions” to economic excitement. I want to simply say “Bollocks”. This is what the BN think-tank would like us the public to believe. But if they themselves believe the spin as well, it spells disaster for them comes the 13th general election. We wait patiently for that day to arrive!

PAS and PR as a whole must not buy the argument that BN is gaining ground as a whole. However, the opposition cannot simply brush it aside either. BN has the “Money” part or access to it with little effort. But in the long run, tycoons’ and “taipans’” patience are running thin and coffers are running dry. If the economy that is very much in need of tending were left to roam in the wilderness, come the 13th GE, BN rats will scuttle to hide in their holes.

The best part of this whole episode is that BN still lost despite all these brilliant manoeuvrings. Chinese people say luck is not on BN’s side. The British may call it lady luck chooses an opposing side. But Muslims say that it is an intervention from above, divine and oft-punishing.

BN simply cannot afford to continue this method in a general election or even a state election. Perak will prove to be a situation best kept as it is. By not seeking a fresh mandate BN can sit pretty at least for a little while until the 13th general election. It will bring little harm but it will not remove the bigger problem of impending defeat. A defeat it will be, albeit a delayed one.

BN desperately needs a reversal of fortunes. It is, however, proven to be very elusive. When BN refuses to accept that their way is the wrong way, their struggle is not a genuine struggle, and that the people can no longer be hoodwinked, what choice do they have but to go back to the old drawing board. Again they have to lay another plan. They plan and Allah also plans; and He is the Best of Planner!

http://wandering-troubadour.blogspot.com/2009/07/other-side-of-story.html