What to avoid in Permatang Pasir
The danger of a near miss is that it makes you overconfident. Hence in his rousing speech when announcing the BN candidate for Permatang Pasir, DPM Muhyiddin said he was congratulated for a near win in Manek Urai.
He said it was strange for him to get congratulatory messages for a loss. You can't miss the gloating he made. He was referring to the near miss of BN winning Manek Urai last month.
I have written about the danger of treating Manek Urai being a swallow amounting to a summer. There were many unique factors in Manek Urai you can't find in Permatang Pasir. There, it was almost 100% Malay constituency with a substantial portion coming from KESEDAR schemes. People in land schemes are easily controlled and disciplined. My personal reading is, if despite the large number of KESEDAR voters, you can't win, there is no reason to crow.
In Permatang Pasir there are no FELDA or KESEDAR clones.
There was also another peculiar tactic in Manek Urai. There was a long pause between the vacancy in the seat and nomination and voting day. The long pause allowed UMNO ground troops to carry out sterling campaign.
UMNO strategists have forgotten this. I would have liked to see the legally allowable period between vacancy and nomination and voting be pushed to the maximum. That will allow the UMNO Permatang Pasir troops to replicate what was done at Manek Urai.
Kelantan had Mustafa Mohamad, a blameless soul not easily disliked even as he looks nerdy. Permatang Pasir has the warlord ketua bahagian Jalil Abdul Majid. According to a political activist, Firdhaus Christopher Abdullah, Dato Jalil who is regarded as the UMNO warlord is generally disliked by voters. He also mentioned the displeasure put up at Zaid Hamidi's shortlisted candidates. Rohaizat Othman may not have his work cut out for him after all.
