Umno can’t afford to pick wrong candidate
By Zubaidah Abu Bakar (NST)
In Bagan Pinang, a Barisan Nasional victory is not as straightforward as some people think, writes ZUBAIDAH ABU BAKAR.
ITS credibility crisis far from over, Umno is set for another showdown with Pas in the Malay majority state constituency of Bagan Pinang in Negri Sembilan.
A by-election coming so soon after its defeat in Permatang Pasir, is no doubt putting a lot of pressure on Umno to retain its traditional seat.
More so, Umno failed to defend the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat in a by-election in January.
A win is also important to break the momentum of Pakatan Rakyat straight wins in by-elections held in the peninsula since the March 8 general election.
Another moral victory achievement like in the July 14 Manik Urai by-election, is simply not good enough since celebrations over the perceived trend that voters have started to warm up to Umno were short-lived when Umno was thrashed in Permatang Pasir a month later.
Pas, in fact, is under no pressure to win. Its ability to reduce the previous majority won by Umno is good enough to shake Barisan Nasional's house, as this could be viewed as rejection of the various policies and measures taken by the BN government to win back lost support.
A victory for Pas will be a bonus for PR as this will mean it will clinch a 8-1 victory in by-elections and renew the people's mandate given to them 18 months ago.
It will not affect representation in the state assembly where PR holds 15 seats to BN's 21 but enough to boost supporters' morale.
The opposition only lost the Batang Ai state by-election in Sarawak, that was held simultaneously with the Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau by-elections.
To maintain this momentum, PR has vowed to put up a strong fight; its partners already doing groundwork to capitalise on issues that can win over new support.
Bagan Pinang is one of the five state seats under the Teluk Kemang parliamentary seat held by PR's Datuk Kamarul Baharin Abbas.
Linggi is the other BN seat while the rest are in PR's stable.
Against this backdrop, the road to victory for BN, amid perceived advantage on its side because of the presence of a big chunk of postal voters among the registered electors, will be winding and bumpy.
Sizable as the majority was last year where the late Azman Mohammad Noor won with a 2,333-vote majority against Pas candidate Ramli Ismail, the margin of victory is a sharp decline from the 4,411-vote majority obtained in the 2004 general election.
Pas had also increased its votes to 4,097 from 1,556, a point that gives PR a glimmer of hope in wresting the seat that makes up 66 per cent Malay votes, 19.9 per cent Indians, 10.5 per cent Chinese and 3.5 per cent of other ethnic groups.
Should Pas manage to maintain its performance and Umno picks the wrong candidate, the possibility of the seat changing hands is there.
The Umno versus Pas electoral bout will not only see them fighting for the Malay vote but also the non-Malays, particularly the Indians, whose votes observers believe will go to the Pas candidate because of the "cow-head gate" — the incident where residents in Shah Alam protested against the Selangor Pakatan government's decision to relocate a Hindu temple.
Crucial to the outcome are the 5,000 postal voters, with almost 2,000 voters coming from Pusasda (Pusat Latihan Asas Tentera Darat), Kem Si Rusa, located in the constituency.
Questions over the validity of postal votes from the camp still continue to haunt Pas.
A few days before last year's general election, Pakatan's operations centre for the Temerloh parliamentary constituency detected a soldier from the camp registered as an ordinary voter in Temerloh while he was a postal voter for Bagan Pinang and the Teluk Kemang parliamentary constituency.
A former soldier who retired a year ago also recently found his name still registered as a postal voter in the Election Commission's website and Pas does not think this is an isolated case.
Of the 4,800 postal votes, 3,080 went to BN while 1,189 to Pas last year. The remaining were either spoilt or the ballot papers were not returned.
The latest gazetted electoral roll shows that there are now 5,171 postal voters in the constituency and they make up 37 per cent of the total number of voters.
For Umno, the candidate has always been an important winning factor. And a misjudgment is something Umno can ill afford in Batang Pinang because voters, as in past by-elections, would scrutinise details of a candidate's background, personal or otherwise.
There have been debates in the Umno circle over the possibility of Tan Sri Mohd Isa Samad contesting the seat and not a few are against the idea.
While Isa does not think his three-year suspension from Umno for vote-buying to win the Umno vice-presidency in 2004 is a liability, some party leaders think Umno would be committing political suicide, given the current political scenario.
The former Negri Sembilan menteri besar and former Federal Territory minister may be a political brand name and, to the Teluk Kemang division, is in the best position to retain the seat.
Yet, no matter how much his supporters argue about his strength and ability to garner support, the fact that his personality is tainted, remains.
Opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim may publicly say the opposition would not exploit Isa's tainted past if he is fielded in the Bagan Pinang by-election but all are aware as to the kind of damage a whisper campaign could do in a by-election.
PR may change its stand when campaigning starts if all it takes to win votes is attack the credibility of the BN candidate, like in the case of Permatang Pasir.
Bagan Pinang is not about a leader's loyalty to Umno nor about local and state politics. It's about BN getting a chance to redeem its past electoral losses.
BN wants to win the by-election and should the Umno leadership feel that no other person but Isa can be the saviour, then he will be the candidate.
The burden to see this through, thus, will sit heavily on the election machinery to counter the opposition's expected merciless onslaught.
