High-stakes winner-takes-all showdown

(Bernama) Some people have blamed Chua’s supporters for making a tactical mistake in pressing for an EGM before the CC meeting but, whatever the case may be, the decision to only suspend him has changed the equation.

THE possible outcome of the Oct 10 MCA extraordinary general meeting (EGM) has narrowed after the central committee (CC) substituted the sacking of deputy president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek with a four-year suspension.

It will be either a “win all” or “lose all” for the current leadership, and if it is the latter, the presidential council and CC would have to resign, paving the way for fresh party elections.

Five motions, all proposed by Dr Chua’s supporters, will be discussed at the EGM, among them, a vote of no confidence against president Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat and another to reinstate Dr Chua.

A party insider said the central delegates could overwhelmingly reject the five motions and hand Ong a landslide victory, or all vote in favour of Dr Chua.

“Unless Ong is given the landslide victory, we are not convinced the EGM will solve MCA’s internal crisis once and for all,” he said.

The insider said the second motion sought the annulment of decisions by the presidential council or CC to expel or suspend Dr Chua.

“If that happens, not only Ong will have to step down but the entire presidential council and CC will also have to do so and this will force fresh party elections,” he added.

This, he said, would open a new battle between Dr Chua’s camp and Ong’s supporters, to be led either by vice-presidents Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai or Datuk Kong Cho Ha.

It is believed that although the CC’s decision had reduced the sympathy factor for Dr Chua and has given Ong the advantage, it is too early to give him a comfortable lead.

It remains to be seen how this will swing the votes of the 2,377 central delegates.

One observer estimated it would influence about 5% of the ballots.

With Ong and Dr Chua each commanding about 30% of the support, the days ahead will see a fight to woo the 40% neutral delegates, or fence sitters.

Another observer argues that the CC’s decision had not only put Dr Chua on the defensive but had also angered the delegates supporting him as they felt the EGM had been undermined and the suspension has effectively shut him out of the 2011 party elections.

Dr Chua’s supporters accused the president of using the CC to frustrate and confuse delegates, saying it was also a “breach of consensus” when both sides had earlier agreed to hold the EGM to resolve the crisis.

Pro-Dr Chua campaigner, Loh Seng Kok, said some CC members with legal background believed that the CC, which met on Sept 19, had no right to review the case of a member who did not appeal.

Loh said Dr Chua had not appealed his expulsion by the Sept 16 deadline because he had surrendered it to the EGM.

Some, however, blamed Dr Chua’s supporters for making a tactical error in pressing for the EGM before the CC meeting.

MCA veteran, Datuk Yap Pian Hon, said the move had been “too fast and too early”.

“They should have known that after the appeal period is over, the CC has to meet and discuss the matter.

“As I see it, they are worried they would lose the sympathy momentum and submitted the EGM petition before that,” he said.

Another observer said Dr Chua’s side could have acted in haste to counter talks that they have not managed to secure the signatures of a third of the central delegations for the EGM.