The sun’s setting on either Ong or Chua

(NST)

IT is going to be a nerve-wracking two weeks for the leaders of MCA's warring factions. On Oct 10, the party's 2,377 delegates will converge on Wisma MCA for an extraordinary general meeting and decide who they want at the helm.

Will it remain in the hands of party president Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat, or will they choose Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek, who had been suspended as deputy president?

Delegates will be voting on five resolutions, of which three will be decisive.

The first resolution is a vote of no-confidence in Ong's leadership, the second demands reinstatement of Dr Chua's membership and the third calls for Dr Chua to be returned as deputy president.

While party members and observers continue to speculate on the outcome of the EGM, most agree that there are two possible ends to the fight.

The first favours Ong, who holds an advantage going into the vote as the incumbent, although he must win all three resolutions to retain strong support.

If he pulls it off, he is expected to continue running his administration as it is. And because winning means he will have Dr Chua out of his hair, Ong is expected to fast-track his proposed renewal plans for the party in a bid to win back Chinese support.

Dr Chua, on the other hand, may have a foot in the door, depending on how delegates interpret the party central committee's (CC) recent decision to take him back as a member, but only after a four-year suspension.

Even if delegates vote in support of Ong's leadership, a vote for Dr Chua's reinstatement as a member or deputy president, or both, is a snub at the CC, which includes Ong, and is effectively another vote of no confidence.

Here the situation gets a little messy, as Ong said should his faction fail in one of the three resolutions, he and his administration would resign en-bloc.

This means Ong and all on his team who hold cabinet positions will also have to relinquish their posts, leaving vacant four ministerial and seven deputy minister's posts.

The situation will put the party back at square one, as delegates will have to return to the ballot box to elect a new party leadership.

That cuts off any fast track route for Dr Chua to take over the presidency, and in turn the transport minister's job that traditionally goes with the position.

But such a vote at the EGM can also be seen as an indication that Dr Chua has a clear shot at taking over at the helm.

As far as the odds go, both sides are believed to be even, each holding 30 per cent of the delegates support. The remaining 40 per cent — the fence-sitters — is where the battle lies.

Ong's detractors are doubtful of his ability to unite the party, claiming much underlying discontent with his tendency to bulldoze through his decisions.

They also question his sincerity, saying that he shifts to a softer and more inclusive stance every time it comes to a vote, only to revert to his hard-line tactics when he is assured of his position.

And while he is barely a year into his tenure as president, Ong is accused of not doing much to improve the party's standing among the Chinese despite his promises of renewal and rejuvenation during party elections last October.

On the flip side, Dr Chua will have to deal with quite a bit of baggage from his infamous exploits documented in a DVD showing him having a tryst with a woman at a hotel in Johor in 2007.

Delegates acknowledge that he is still very capable of contributing to the party but because he is still dogged by the scandal, which was the reason for his late expulsion, his presidency is considered a political risk.

Ong supporters say if Dr Chua were to become president, the taint of the sex DVD will only play into the opposition's hands.

And because it is hardly a year since the last party elections, there are sentiments that the MCA cannot, in the interest of its survival, afford to have another round of party polls so soon.

Either way the vote goes, it spells the end of the political career of one leader.

But what matters most for the party is what happens after the delegates have made their choice.

Supporters from both camps say they are putting their faith in the wisdom of the delegates to choose what is right for the MCA.

After that decision is made, let us hope they can all come to terms with it and move on.