Middle ground is battle ground
The magic number of a simple majority in the lower house is 112 seats. The two groups of marginal seats from both sides of the divide combined are 110 seats. The middle ground is really the battle ground.
Liew Chin Tong, The Malaysian Insider
Going by our newspapers, Malaysia seems to be on the path of polarisation, politically or otherwise. But a 10 per cent vote swing either way will finish Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rakyat. It is middle ground that matters.
A swing in BN’s favour will see PR reduced to 29 seats only, nd if the tide is in PR’s favour the nascent coalition will come to power with 139 seats, the number of seats BN currently holds.
It goes without saying that every election is a different one involving new personalities, a different sentiment, and changing themes. Thus, results from the previous election can only serve as a reference. Yet it is still worthwhile to draw some lessons from it.
It is undeniable that a 10 per cent across-the-board national swing is massive which doesn’t always happen. But it is not impossible. BN’s national vote share was 65 per cent in the 1995 general election, 57 per cent in 1999, 64per cent in 2004, and 51 per cent in 2008. Between 1995 and 1999 elections, BN’s vote share declined by 8 per cent while between 2004 and 2008 elections it suffered a sharp 13per cent dive.
PR won 83 of 222 parliamentary seats in the 2008 election. Of BN’s 139 seats, 54 are from Sabah and Sarawak. In Peninsula Malaysia, BN has a very small advantage of 85 seats over PR’s 81. It is interesting to note that PR obtained 51 per cent of votes in the Peninsula.
Of PR’s 83 seats, 54 were won with a majority of less than 10 per cent, which are usually called “marginal seats”. Assuming a 10 per cent swing in BN’s favour, the three PR parties, namely DAP, PKR and PAS, will be left with merely 29 seats.
On the other hand, 56 of BN’s 139 seats were won with a majority of less than 10 per cent. A 10 per cent swing in PR’s favour will end BN’s rule convincingly.
The magic number of a simple majority in the lower house is 112 seats. The two groups of marginal seats from both sides of the divide combined are 110 seats. The middle ground is really the battle ground.
