Uphill battle for PR in Bagan Pinang, Indian votes crucial
Meanwhile, another political analyst said PR might be able to pull off a surprise if it could gain further mileage on the postal voters comprising mainly army and police personnel, stressing that the 2008 PAS candidate Ramli Ismail managed to secure 1,189, or 24.77%, of the 4,800 postal votes.
Written by Yong Min Wei, The Edge
Pakatan Rakyat (PR) has an uphill battle to wrest Bagan Pinang from Barisan Nasional (BN) but the opposition could ride on issues surrounding the Indian community to turn the tables.
Political analyst Dr Ooi Kee Beng opined that the “cow head” issue and the failure of the MIC to effectively assist and represent the Indians would be brought up at ceramahs to garner the support of some 20% Indians in the 14,000-voter electorate.
“I am not saying that the Indians would be the decider in the by-election but their votes are crucial,” he told The Edge Financial Daily.
Ooi said the Indian voters in the semi-urban constituency would be looking at Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s ability to handle the current fiasco in the MIC, which seemed to be heading for a split.
Acknowledging that the Bagan Pinang by-election would be tough to call, Ooi said PR merely needed to convince an additional 1,200 voters to wipe out BN’s Azman Mohammad Noor’s 2,333-vote majority in the constituency in the 2008 general election.
“Judging from PR’s track record in by-elections, getting an extra 1,000 or more votes is within its reach. BN has also tried hard to win in by-elections but have lost (in the peninsula),” said Ooi, a fellow at Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.
Saying that “BN has more to lose”, he said Umno must refrain from fielding any “controversial” candidate and should learn from its mistake in the Permating Pasir by-election. He added that Umno would be a victim of its own solid structure if it nominated former vice-president Tan Sri Isa Samad for the seat.
“I can’t agree more with Tun Dr Mahathir (Mohamad). Fielding Isa would split public opinion,” he added.
Asked whether cracks in PR would weaken their campaigning, the political analyst said BN also had its fair share of problems and that the by-election trend seemed to indicate that non-Malay support for the opposition was gaining momentum.
However, he added that the “March 8 tide” was not that strong in the southern part of the peninsula and as such, the Bagan Pinang by-election was ideal to test the sentiment of the rakyat.
Meanwhile, another political analyst said PR might be able to pull off a surprise if it could gain further mileage on the postal voters comprising mainly army and police personnel, stressing that the 2008 PAS candidate Ramli Ismail managed to secure 1,189, or 24.77%, of the 4,800 postal votes.
“Postal votes are like safe deposits for BN and it is common for more than 90% of postal voters to favour them traditionally. It is surprising that PAS could garner 25% the last time,” he said, declining to be named.
According to this analyst, if PR would be granted access to the army camps to campaign and the differences among several PR leaders in Selangor could be overcome soon, the opposition pact could pin its hopes on the oratory skills of a host of its leaders at ceramahs to capture the hearts of the fence-sitters.
He added that although BN looked comfortable with more than a 2,000-vote margin in the last election, the high number of spoilt and unreturned ballots in Bagan Pinang could translate into some 1,000 votes that could have swung either way.
“It will be a photo finish if the turnout is very high and the Malay votes equally split,” the political analyst said.
For an average sized state constituency with 14,192 voters, the 12th general election results showed there were 384 spoilt ballots and an unusually large number of 668 unreturned ballots in Bagan Pinang.
As such, the 2,333-vote majority obtained by BN’s Azman could have been substantially increased or reduced if the 1,052 spoilt and unreturned ballots were counted as votes.
According to the Election Commission (EC) data for the 2008 election, of the 36 state constituencies in Negri Sembilan, Bagan Pinang has the highest number of unreturned ballots, followed by its closest contender Rantau with 250 ballots.
Excluding Bagan Pinang, the 35 constituencies averaged 42 unreturned ballots with eight state seats — Palong, Jeram Padang, Bahau, Lenggeng, Juasseh, Johol, Gemencheh and Repah — having zero unreturned ballots.
As for spoilt ballots, the Repah constituency with 15,819 voters topped the list with 441 spoilt votes, followed by Bagan Pinang while Senaling had the least with 133 votes.
The EC has fixed Oct 11 for polling in Bagan Pinang in the event of a contest. The state constituency has 13,664 voters of whom 8,577 or 62.77% are Malays, 1,498 (10.96%) Chinese, 2,834 (20.74%) Indians and others, 755 (5.54%). The figure includes 4,604 postal voters.
