Can BN stave off Pakatan?
History has shown that regimes which have ruled without competition for decades can lose it. The most recent example is the LDP of Japan which has ruled unbroken for 54 years except for a short 9 months stint but was kicked out of power in a crushing victory by the opposition.
By Kenny Gan, Malaysian Mirror
What are the chances of Barisan Nasional being replaced by Pakatan Rakyat at the next general election? Can a party which has dominated national politics for 52 years and counting be defeated?
First of all, a party which has governed without much democratic competition for so long would have bent all the levers of government under its control to serve its purpose of maintaining power.
Lack of fear of losing power breeds arrogance, corruption and disrespect for human rights. Abuse of public institutions and security services will be rampant. Power is often upheld by unjust laws and a compliant judiciary to rule favourably for the government.
In such long lasting regimes, elections are seldom free or fair as the ruling party controls the printed media and the airwaves to disseminate its propaganda while restricting the opposition from getting its message out.
Gerry meandering electoral boundaries, abusing postal votes and even holding elections on working days to disadvantage the opposition are tricks of the trade. To displace a dominant party in a one party system looks formidable or almost impossible but it isn’t actually so.
In fact it appears that dominant parties have a certain lifespan beyond which it gets harder and harder to hold on to power until it is given the boot by a dissatisfied electorate.
Even elections held on an unlevel playing field are ineffective in holding on to power.
Power that lasted an awesome half-century
History has shown that regimes which have ruled without competition for decades can lose it. The most recent example is the LDP of Japan which has ruled unbroken for 54 years except for a short 9 months stint but was kicked out of power in a crushing victory by the opposition.
The Kuomintang Party of Taiwan was ousted in 2000 after 51 years at the helm but has now regained it. The PRI of Mexico lost power after 51 years of rule and is still the opposition although it is gaining ground.
Does the PAP of Singapore look impossible to dislodge? If ever there is a country where the opposition has been beaten to a pulp this is it.
But Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew does not think so. He opined that PAP will be safe for the next two elections and after that, anything goes. Incidentally, another two elections would mean PAP would have ruled Singapore for about 50 years.
Now, what is this thing about half a century of rule? Is this the natural lifespan of a dominant party give or take a few years? BN has ruled for 52 years and going by the half century rule it has already overstayed and should be out by the next election shouldn’t it?
Actually there is nothing magical about 50 years but apparently, it is a good time for democratic renewal going by the number of regimes which have lost power after ruling that long.
It appears to be a sufficient duration for a ruling regime to build up its arrogance and abuses to a point where a groundswell of voter sentiment turn against it in disgust and sweep it from power.
