Scrapping the bottom of the barrel (UPDATED WITH CHINESE TRANSLATION)

By Hakim Joe

For a political party that boasts over a million active members, how hard can it be to find an appropriate candidate to contest a by-election? The answer is, “extremely difficult”, putting it mildly. In fact it is so demanding a task that they had to do a recycling job in spite of being the incumbent and the massive number of postal votes involved in a pro-BN constituency. 

Simply said, it is a seat they can no longer afford to lose. Seven previous by-elections in the peninsular, seven seats lost (discounting the East Malaysian seat). Not a very good track record to be certain, especially polling as the government. This is not any special seat by all means, but do imagine the embarrassment of losing in a proven pro-BN stronghold. Afterall, broken illusions of past grandeur are disenchanting. 

Now, who is the lucky fellow that has been selected as the Umno candidate this time around? Well, judging from the previous ignominy of selecting (but not vetting) a disbarred lawyer, one would think that the Umno leaders have seriously learnt their lessons well and this time around, the chosen one would be someone from Umno without a single blemish on his record. Permit me to rephrase that – someone with the least minor blemishes on his record, but alas, even that is not quite possible as no such person exist, judging by their selection. 

So, who do we have contesting on the BN ticket? Before we start naming names, let us consider the multitude of dilemmas facing the selectors. The perfect candidate would of course be someone influential that is well known and well liked by the voters. Additionally, it has to be someone that is acceptable by the warlords and faithful to the Najib camp, someone senior enough to command respect and someone that can be perceived as a “plus factor” to the government. Over a million members and Umno soon discovered that quantity does not automatically mean quality, not that it has stopped them from boasting such numbers. 

Now, once upon a time, there lived a BN old hand that has risen to the number three spot in the Umno hierarchy, who is loved by his group of peers for his generosity, who has also fallen wayward after being influenced by monetary gains. The term “just don’t get caught” suddenly pops into mind or what our Home Minister implied that “there are bad, bad apples and there are good bad apples” (whatever he means). Still wielding a lot of authority in Port Dickson, a stone’s throw away from Bagan Pinang, his support from the Umno grassroots remained strong, or is this staunch support given in hope of “better times” if this person did eventually win the seat? Whatever the reasons are, the Seremban HQ warlords have actively petitioned for his political revival despite getting the thumbs down from ex-numero uno TDM, and when existing warlords command their minions to give support to their chosen “people’s candidate”, the yes men says “yes” (obviously). 

The down trodden political life of a former federal minister and ex-MB of Negeri Sembilan is suddenly rejuvenated and given a new lease on life and here comes 60 years old YB Tan Sri Mohd Isa Bin Haji Abdul Samad, who was previously suspended from Umno for three years owing to the fact that he was found guilty of getting caught dabbling in the finer arts of “money politics”, not a serious crime mind you, if you happen to be in the same camp as the PM. The visions of the Kerbau from Rembau and the present Melaka MB suddenly materializes into view. 

Nevertheless, what possessed the selectors to opt for an elderly man who had once been suspended from party membership for fraud? A man famous for the granting of timber concessions and state land grants? Well, if someone who was found guilty of committing the same actions can subsequently be elected as the Umno Youth Chief, what is so wrong with another person who, of a similar background, is being selected to represent the governing coalition in this by election? Apparently the answer is that there is nothing wrong with it. What does this say of the selectors and their concept of a high caliber candidate? 

Basically what it does is that it infers that the government supports such actions (money politics to them and corruption to the rest of us layman). Michael Douglas once said in the film Wall Street that “greed is good”. Perhaps that is actually the overt message the Umno hierarchy is attempting to impart to its members. Nothing to be ashamed of anyway. 

The newly installed Umno administration, under new management, has tried hard to put on a show of reform, integrity and honor but this one deed of selecting soiled goods to represent them exhibits a trait that positively shows just where they stand, despite what they say. Old habits die hard, older politicians seldom die.  

Let us now inspect the BN/Umno candidate. Mohd Isa is no stranger to the current political scene as shown by the support from the Umno grassroot notwithstanding his absence from active politics for three years. The contested seat of Bagan Pinang is also not unknown to him as it is the constituency that neighbors his former state assembly seat of Linggi in Negeri Sembilan. Additionally, the bigwigs of KL have thrown their full support behind him and the voters are the people whom he is acquainted with. Incumbency in a pro-BN stronghold with a massive postal vote (almost 41%) and a large war chest sounds like a landslide-winning formula. Even nominate a monkey (wearing the blue BN cap) and it is odds on that it will still win, lest a former state MB. However, this is where all the “feel good” sentiments end. 

One, we are talking about a candidate that has been rejected by the same political party that he was a prominent member of. Call it money politics or whatever but it is still electoral fraud by any other name and since money is used as the means to entice certain quarters to vote in favor of him, that is what one calls corruption. In the eyes of those who condemn this individual within Umno, it is not the actions that became the failings of this one man but the actions of getting caught that’s the real crime. Boasting about how much he spent in the Umno party elections was really never the sensible thing to do. 

Two, with the massive swing from BN to the opposition camp as exhibited in last year’s political tsunami and the recent seven straight West Malaysian BN by-election losses, the momentum is with Pakatan but that has been effectively cancelled by the sheer volume of postal votes. In any year since Merdeka prior to 2008, the BN candidate would have won this seat hands down without breaking a sweat. Last year, the voters of Bagan Pinang elected Azman Mohd Nor by a majority of 2,333 votes with a turnout of 10,911 voters. That is a substantial 21%. In 2004, Umno thrashed PAS by a majority of 4,411 votes with a turnout of 8,022 voters (55%). Will the continuing swing be sufficient to offset the number of postal votes? 

Three, will the present MB of Negeri Sembilan, Dato Seri Mohamad Hj Hassan, appreciated having a still influential former MB in his camp as one of his supposedly minions? With the economy experiencing a negative growth (minus 6.2% in the first quarter), how long will it be before the Isa supporters call for a change in the state leadership, if indeed Mohd Isa does win in Bagan Pinang? Will Mohd Hassan want or desire that? Can he tolerate or risk his former political master cum mentor undermining his authority in Negeri Sembilan? 

Four, as statistically shown, the Bagan Pinang voters swung almost 13% in 2008. Will this swing continue to exist, even with a new federal administration, and sweep the PAS candidate into power? BN currently only holds 20 seats (after the demise of Azman Mohd Nor) in the 36-seat NS State Assembly as opposed to Pakatan’s 15 seats, from 34 against 2 in 2004. Similarly, Mohd Isa’s previous Linggi seat saw a swing of 19.9% in 2008 (but was still unable to unseat the BN incumbent). Other constituencies within the Teluk Kemang area include Chuah (30.3% swing to the opposition and won by PKR from MCA), Lukut (25.7% swing to the opposition and won by DAP from MCA) and Port Dickson (15.8% swing to the opposition and won by PKR from MIC). The Teluk Kemang parliamentary seat, won by PKR last year from MIC, also saw a 25.3% swing to the opposition. 

Nonetheless, Bagan Pinang is not a constituency that is easy for Pakatan to win. First and foremost, this is not an urban area where the residents are more politically aware (and better informed). The results will depend on whether the voters have forgiven their errant son or not. Two, the volume of postal votes (41% based on the 2008 electoral roll) will be the deciding factor, not the minority vote. The armed forces have traditionally been overwhelmingly pro-BN. Will this trend persist? Three, the almost-bottomless self-refilling BN war chest is awesome and their election machinery is campaigning in a pro-BN stronghold. Four, TDM has voiced his concern over the choice of candidate and has indicated that he will not be joining the other BN chiefs and warlords when they do their customary rounds there. Pity, that would be at least another 5% swing to the PAS candidate if TDM had agreed to campaign on behalf of the tainted BN candidate. Five, between 75% and 77% customarily turn out at the voting booths and this makes the pro-BN absentee postal vote all the more commanding. Six, the Kampong Buah Pala incident will indirectly affect how the 20% ethnic Indian vote but the recent MIC party elections might offset it. Can these people differentiate between friend and foe? Fortunately, the PKFZ scandal guarantees the PAS candidate almost all the Chinese votes. Having said that, Selangor PAS commissioner Hasan Ali did not help things by going off half-corked. 

No matter what is being said or done, this by election is going to be an indication of whether the voters had accepted Najib’s administration or rejected it. As the incumbent, the pressure is heaped upon the Umno candidate and not the PAS challenger. A massive decrease in the majority of winning votes or even a loss will spell trouble for BN, and possibly for the entire nation as well, especially the opposition as one blogger joked that the anti-ISA t-shirts might once again be the fashion rage (again) if Pakatan wins at Bagan Pinang. 

So will it be status quo or a healthy shout for long awaited reforms? Ask me after the elections and I will tell you readers whether Umno’s desperate scraping (for dregs) at the bottom of the barrel has proven successful, or not.

Translated into Chinese at: http://ccliew.blogspot.com/2009/10/blog-post_02.html