Bagan Pinang is Umno’s to lose
Criticism over choice of Isa Samad as candidate bound to surface at Umno assembly
There was, therefore, all the more reason to expect the party to do all it could to avoid shooting itself in the foot once again as it did in August. Now, even if Mr Isa does win, the party will have to pay a long-term price on the national stage.
By Ooi Kee Beng, Today Online
HE choice of Mr Isa Samad by the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) to be its candidate for the crucial Bagan Pinang state by-election on Oct 10 casts serious doubt on the party’s insight into the country’s new political landscape.
Mr Isa’s candidature is a slap in the face of Umno veterans, such as former Premier Mahathir Mohamad and former Finance Minister Razaleigh Hamzah, who have been warning against reinstating someone suspended by the party for political corruption; and whose suspension was used by the party to trumpet its resolve to check dubious practices.
Before March 8 last year, such an audacious selection may have passed without much comment. But times have changed and the public is particularly sensitive to arrogant behaviour among its leaders.
Umno would realise this if it were not as self-absorbed as it is at present.
Mr Isa, Mentri Besar of Negeri Sembilan for 22 years prior to 2004, was suspended in June 2005 on seven charges of political corruption. The six-year suspension was later reduced to three after he appealed.
The fact that Umno lost the Permatang Pasir by-election on Aug 25 after fielding Mr Rohaizat Othman, a lawyer who had been disbarred by the Bar Council for misconduct, seems not to have deterred the party.
Perhaps the significance of that defeat was shielded from Umno by the deliberation that Permatang Pasir in Penang was not theirs to win in any case.
Bagan Pinang, on the other hand, is theirs to lose. All the seven by-elections held so far since the general election have involved seats held by opposition parties. This one – No 8 on the peninsula – is the first involving a Barisan Nasional (BN) seat.
There was, therefore, all the more reason to expect the party to do all it could to avoid shooting itself in the foot once again as it did in August. Now, even if Mr Isa does win, the party will have to pay a long-term price on the national stage.
While Umno may be more able to stand its ground in this case than in earlier by-elections, the constituency’s support for the party did fall from a margin of 4,411 in 2004 to 2,333 last year. Should Umno lose in Negeri Sembilan, an electoral frontline state where the BN is only four seats away from losing power, there is a danger that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) support might spread further in the peninsula’s southern regions.
After all, the parliamentary constituency of Teluk Kemang, within which Bagan Pinang is situated, is held by Mr Kamarul Baharin Abbas of the opposition Parti Keadilan Rakyat. Of the other four state seats within Teluk Kemang, only one – Linggi – is under theBN.
This turn of events also shows that other BN members, despite being under as much pressure as Umno is to reposition themselves, are unable to advise their big brother to think beyond narrow party politics.
Umno’s top leaders are clearly cognisant of the dicey game they are playing by putting short-sighted divisional demands before central concerns.
One misgiving that will linger after the by-election, even among Umno supporters, is that this incident suggests that Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak lacks control over the party at state and local levels.
Whatever the result, repercussions within Umno are to be expected. Discontented elements within it are bound to make their objections heard after the battle is over, especially with this year’s general assembly, during which serious party reforms are to be announced, is just around the corner.
The writer is a Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. His latest book is Arrested Reform: The Undoing of Abdullah Badawi.
