The people of Bagan Pinang have spoken, Pakatan Rakyat are you listening?
By Vijay Kumar Murugavell
Firstly, please let me state that I must eat humble pie. My estimate was that BN would garner about 55 % of the popular vote in this by-election or 6,000 votes tops or less than the previous 6430 votes. After all, in situations when the odds are stacked against you, reducing your opponents majority margin is a moral victory of sorts. Never did I imagine BN garnering 8,000 votes or 76% of the vote share. It is nothing short of “seismic” to say the least.
My only consolation is that those who predicted a PR win were even more way off. No less than the Home Minister himself said that this was an unexpected landslide win.
The people of Bagan Pinang have spoken loud and clear, but what did they really say? Depending on their political affiliation people tend to accentuate some reasons while refusing to see others.
BN gained ground
Compared to the last general election, (GE) BN not only retained the seat but gained ground by a shift of an additional 15% overall and a 13% gain in the postal vote.The turnout was an impressive 81%, identical to the last general election despite having 500 fewer registered voters on the rolls.
BN achieved a majority that was broadbased in all voting streams.
Postal votes
Though postal votes are a contentious issue that some call an anomaly in Malaysia, in the case of Bagan Pinang, PAS should stop harping on this issue as the reason for their losses. In the last GE, PAS obtained 1189 postal votes. This time they lost 588 votes garnering only 601. The total number of postal voters who cast their vote is marginally lower compared to last GE by 147 voters. The shift in postal voters is slightly less at 13% than the overall shift, very reasonable owing to the fact that most of the men in uniform tend to vote BN.
This is a known fact and harping about it will just annoy the men in uniform who bravely voted for the opposition. Infering otherwise will alienate this group. It is even possible that the reduced number could be due to some of the postal voters getting annoyed that a big hue and cry was made about this.
Please remember that former Teluk Kemang Member of Parliament Datuk S. Sothinathan, who won the seat in 2004 with a 17,777-vote majority, lost in 2008 as most postal votes went to the Opposition.
In the US, the military tend to generally vote Republican. In Malaysia, they tend to vote BN. Change it or live with it.
I want to very bluntly say to apologists who still want to bring up postal votes in this by-election the point that even if by some unlikely miracle like 100% (4122 votes) of the postal votes were going to PAS, which is as likely as finding Unicorns, Elves and Blue Flamingos in your garden, BN will still win by 1313 votes.
So please stop it. It just makes you look like a sore loser.
The Indian voters
The voters in the 4 estates in Bagan Pinang (Ladang Atherton, Siliau, Ladang Bradwall and Sua Betong) cast their votes overwhelmingly in favor of the BN candidate.
On the local front voters wanted some issues resolved; issues such as the housing scheme in Siliau, Street light, school upgrading and temple renovation in Bradwall, the PD Mariamman temple land matter, Sua Betong crematorium status and the Sg Salak shop lot school problem in Lukut – were some of the core issues that were addressed and attended to by Yayasan myNadi nearly a month before polling day promising to deliver and how they will benefit from the 1Malaysia concept.
PR on the other hand did not have a cohesive plan in place beyond hoping that the Indian voters will punish BN for the Shah Alam cow-head incident and the questionable death under custody of A.Kugan. A grave miscalculation.
Even Uthayakumar (HRP) and a few others instigating the Indians to boycott the polling did not work as can be seen by the high turnout. Even lesser manifestations of a boycott campaign would have shown up as spoilt or unreturned ballots, but data shows that spoilt/unreturned ballots have dropped by about 50% since the last GE.
On the national front, many were upset with the mishandling of the Kg Buah Pala issue. Yes they know BN alienated the land but there are still unanswered questions like why the transfer was allowed to go through. Saying that it was merely administrative or a done deal will not convince doubters.
If there was a a special panel to Investigate land scams establised on Mar 22, 2008, how did this happen? Was it a slip up, deliberate or a case of insurbodination by the land office? A full disclosure of the Penang state government’s exco minutes would help to clarify some of these lingering questions.
Eyebrows were raised when LGE on Sept 29, 2009 said that the minutes in question will not be declassified.
There must be an amicable resolution to this issue otherwise it will continue to haunt PR until the next general election. It would also be good if DSAI could explain why he was deafeningly silent about the Kg Buah Pala issue but quick to respond when it came to the Tanjung Tokong impending squatter eviction. This has deeply hurt many within the Indian community.
The Chinese swing
Business plain and simple, the Chinese community at the moment hold the largest chunk of the economic pie and they did not achieve this by being unconcerned about business. They wanted many of the abandoned projects revived and only BN holds the reigns of Federal Power, more so when the candidate did not articulate convincingly how he could do that.
On the national level the confidence level that PR can take over the Federal Government next GE has diminished day by day after the 916 proclamation. Giving the PAS candidate a seat in the State Assembly will make for a razor thin balance to one that is already thinned down to PR 16 BN 18 in the State assembly and the Chinese there did not trust PR to not scuttle the state assembly.
Thinking that the Chinese community would punish BN at the ballot box because of Teoh Beng Hock’s controversial death and the ongoing crisis within MCA was another grave miscalculation. The Chinese community was more concerned about PAS religio-political posturing.
Antics within Pakatan
The antics of Dr. Hassan Ali in Selangor on banning beer, Nasharuddin Mat Isa calling for concerts to be banned and a coterie of pronouncements made many non-Muslims who supported PAS in the last general elections mulling if they made the right choice.
Jeff Ooi making pronouncements that JIM (Jemaah Islah Malaysia) is an extremist organization, his retraction at the urging of Lim Guan Eng, did not appease many as it did not seem sincere. An apology would have been far better than a retraction – that too, grudgingly given. Then we have that PKR wonderboy from Kulim, Zulkifli Noordin famous for gate-crashing a Bar Council forum and other sheenanigans. Granted, Pakatan did not have time to whet thru candidates in the last GE and many potentials did not join because very few thought Pakatan could deny BN two-thirds majority. But in the next GE, PR better select candidates properly
and drop the problematic ones otherwise do not be shocked that people do a “Bagan Pinang” and protest their candidacy by voting BN.
Manifesto Calun PAS/PR : N31 Bagan Pinang (PAS candidate manifesto)
The candidate starts off by thanking the media for reporting his activities fairly when we all know that the MSM is famous for its biased reporting. This pronouncement is totally unnecessary and is more apt for a press statement, not a manifesto. He then goes on to announce all the problems faced by the constituents from uncollected rubbish, mosquitoes, flash floods, upgrading of roads etc and how tourism will improve if these were done and all the while not explaining how he will achieve this other than pledging to bring these issues up
at the State Assembly and bringing it up to the Teluk Kemang parlimentarian who will in turn bring it up in Parliament.
He then goes on to make an incredible statement saying that even if Tan Sri Isa wins it is not his duty to build roads. This too while conceding that roads come under the ambit of the Federal Government. Beyond citing his experience as a volunteer environmentalist, he offers very little concrete solutions. He then goes on to say that if victory is given to him, there will be a razor thin power balance in the state assembly while scoffing at UMNO with churlish statements like “Whether the road is completed first or UMNO falls first let the people decide”. How is one to win hearts and minds against a popular local candidate more so in a BN stronghold with such statements?
My question is, why go into areas under the ambit of the Federal Government which Pakatan reps have a disadvantage in leveraging? Why create your own “Manifesto” (if it can be called that) when you should be using the Pakatan Manifesto.
How can you persuade people to allow you to represent them when you do not know the difference between a press statement and a manifesto? I can see BN campaigners printing out this “manifesto” and snickering about it in coffee shops.
I will just stop there, you can read the rest of the “manifesto” here http://drsitimariah.blogspot.com/2009/10/manifesto-calun-paspr-n31-bagan-pinang.html.
Are you guys sure you fielded the right candidate ?
Humility in campaigning and grace in defeat
Everyone knows Tan Sri Isa was suspended for money politics but PR stressed this to the point of overkill. Dr. Mahathir too opined that it was better if he did not contest, so did others. When you see political allies of your foes attacking from within, the smart thing for you to do is back off or at least pause. This is common sense. If you see a husband and wife bickering and you try to pit one against the other, both are likely to join forces and attack you. Heck, if they had children maybe they will back their parents up and attack you as well,
because you will be seen as an interfering outsider poking your nose in family affairs. In the case of Bagan Pinang, BN supporters are metaphorically those children.
As expected, no sooner had PR started intensifying attacks, Dr.M stopped commenting and many others came out in Isa’s defence. Any doubt fence-sitters had over the suitability of a corrupted candidate would have evaporated when they saw it being used as a relentless opportunistic attack. The fact that Tan Sri Isa is extremely popular with Bagan Pinang folk only made matters worse.
The physical attack on Umno supreme council member Abdul Azeez Abdul Rahim – many just chastized him for faking an injury after pictures of him in a neck brace was splashed across the media and leaflets distributed to show the “barbaric” behaviour of PR campaigners. But many miss the point that whether he was faking it or not, attacking him physically was wrong. If only the contesting PAS candidate or a senior PR representative had visited him in hospital while condemning the attackers, they would have endeared themselves to some. What’s the point of accusing UMNO campaigners of being hooligans when you are guilty of the same?
When you are up against a popular incumbent, it pays to be humble and think your strategy through. You may rally up your campaign team with psy-war and propoganda of winning but alienate the voters who will see you as delusional.
Leave some semblance of dignity so that in the event you lose you don’t have to swallow your words and try to do better the next round. When the odds are stacked against you, it’s better to make pronouncements like “We will try our best” or “We hope to reduce the opponent’s majority”.
Remember the statement made by a former Menteri Besar who made grandiose statements like “Zero opposition in Selangor” or the upstarts who promised to “Bury Anwar in Permatang Pauh”? After the former was relegated to the opposition and Anwar won with an even larger mandate, did not those who made those pronouncements look like downright clowns and subjected to endless lampooning? Well, Bagan Pinang is Permatang Pauh in reverse and guess who ended up with the egg on the face?
When it was finally over, images of the victors flashed across TV screens throughout the nation. Normally, in many by-elections past, the BN candidate usually left in a huff even before the final results can be announced. This time, the PAS candidate was missing. Would it not be gracious to wait for the official announcement and congratulate the victor? Would it not make you the bigger man?
I was one of the first few to offer condolences to some UMNO members that I know when YB Azman passed away triggering this by-election. Did any of the PR leaders visit his family or at least publicly offer condolences? What values are we demostrating to our young ones? Even before he was buried, many already started speculating about the outcome of this by-election and frankly it makes me sick.
Suggestions
1) Form a shadow cabinet –
PR should give counter proposals and keep our cabinet on their toes while articulating ideas that indeed give people confidence that PR is truly a government in waiting. This will also streamline PR’s press statements – not having PAS say one thing, DAP another and PKR yet another take on the very same subject.
2) Work with more NGO’s –
BN is stepping up its cooperation with NGO’s to reach out. PR should not be left behind. Work with as many as possible, including Hindraf. There may still be bad blood but channels of dialogue must be opened.
3) Register as a formal coalition –
Many from the legal fraternity have interpreted that the ROS regulations require at least seven to become a formal coalition. Recently, the EC Chairman gave a vague interpretation that it should be no problem. I suggest Pakatan call his bluff and register.
If, as expected, this is not possible then please source for more allies from East Malaysia. Forget about trying to make inroads using PKR. Batang Ai is a stark reminder. It did not matter if Jawah Gerang was local. PKR was not and the voters gave their verdict.
Work with DAP on logistics of the urban areas and ally with local East Malaysian partys. Even UMNO cannot make inroads there alone.
My other writings reside here http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=6778953884
