Winning the next elections
By Wong Chin Huat, The Nut Graph
THERE are three ways to understand the stunning outcome of the Bagan Pinang by-election: Najib, Isa and the Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
If you believe that the Barisan Nasional (BN)’s victory is really about Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s 1Malaysia, then you would have to accept that Tan Sri Mohd Isa Abdul Samad and the money politics he represents is the face of 1Malaysia in Bagan Pinang. You would also have to believe that the voters do not see any discrepancy between the ideals of 1Malaysia and money politics, and perhaps see political corruption as a technical error, rather than a moral issue.
If you believe that the victory is actually about Isa, then there is not much credit that Najib, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin or Parti Makkal Sakthi Malaysia can claim. Isa is just the locals’ favourite son who could walk around to “cari-cari undi” and win handsomely. What does that tell us about the next elections? Umno should just field more well-liked local warlords, at least in semi-rural and rural seats.
But how many more like Isa can the BN and Umno find? And how many votes will they lose among the urban electorate who do care about integrity and accountability?
The third way to understand the Bagan Pinang poll results is this: notwithstanding the Isa factor, the PR has itself to blame for the widening majority, from 2,333 votes in 2008 to 5,435 votes in 2009.
You could attribute it to the relatively weak candidate fielded by PAS, who was not even a good public speaker. You could blame it on the poor service record of Datuk Kamarul Baharin Abbas, the PKR parliamentarian for Teluk Kemang where the Bagan Pinang state seat is located. You can point fingers at the complacent PAS electoral machinery, or the last-minute campaigning by PR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
But apart from these conventional explanations, what else do the results portend for political parties, especially in the PR?
Deserting PR?
Do the Bagan Pinang poll results perhaps tell us that the non-Malay Malaysian voters — especially the Indian Malaysians — are deserting the PR?
The BN’s lead or majority over PAS among postal voters — about 85% are Malay Malaysians — increased only by 26.54%, from 44.30% in 2008 to 70.84% in 2009. In contrast, the increase in BN’s majority among ordinary voters is greater, from a mere 7.06% to 38.88%. About 49% of ordinary voters in Bagan Pinang are non-Malay Malaysians, out of which 31% are Indian Malaysians.
Isa Could this be explained by the Isa factor? Partly, yes. Isa is indeed popular among the locals of all backgrounds. An MCA branch chairperson who put up BN banners and flags told me: “Umno comes, it will lose. MCA comes, it will lose even more. It’s Isa that we are working for. Not political parties.”
