When is the 13th General Election?
By Kenny Gan
Ever since the epic 12th general elections, which saw a realignment of the political landscape, the average Malaysian, normally apathetic to politics due to the boring regularity of BN’s sweeping victories, have started to take an interest in elections, especially the next general election.
Pakatan Rakyat supporters who can’t wait to see BN swept out of power are notably impatient for the next general election, even though the last one was held a mere 20 months ago. As general elections are held every 5 years, the next one is not due until March 2013.
However it is the usual practice for the incumbent government to hold elections earlier, rather than wait until its term expires. This allows it to choose an opportune time, such as a booming economy, when its support may be higher. To wait until the last months deprives it of the freedom to choose a favourable timing or the ability to wait for scandals to cool, if any should pop up unexpectedly.
Another reason for holding early elections may be to clear the way to institute an unpopular policy which may harm its chances in the next election. Abdullah Badawi held the 2008 elections a full year before his term was to expire in March 2009, because he wanted to raise the price of oil drastically. True enough, Malaysians were hit with the steepest ever increase in oil price barely 3 months after the election.
Will he or won’t he?
When Najib Razak took over from Badawi, there was speculation by the ever-hopeful that he might call a snap general election to stamp his legitimacy. This proved to be false. Umno leaders have seldom ever worried about legitimacy to rule. The Perak power grab provides a fine example of their lack of concern in seeking legitimacy from the people.
When Najib marked his 100 days in office with his bag of 11 goodies for the public, the veteran Lim Kit Siang, who is ever ready for elections, wondered aloud whether this denoted an impending snap election but this was not to be.
It is usual for incumbent PMs to hold elections up to 6 months earlier than their expiry dates, but is there any reason for Najib to call snap elections much earlier?
Umno is undeniably eager to wrest back the states they lost to PR, save Kelantan. The loss of these rich states have resulted in many unemployed and restless Umno warlords who feel lost without the perks of power that they are used to.
But BN now faces its toughest competition ever in the form of Pakatan Rakyat. With the PR juggernaut winning every by-election in the Peninsula save Bagan Pinang, calling early elections could mean being booted out of Federal power early.
The Perak power grab and the attack on the Selangor government show that Umno is more amenable to recapturing the opposition states by bypassing the electoral system than by facing the people.
BN may wait
Will BN’s spectacular success in the Bagan Pinang by-election convince Najib to call the 13th general election sooner rather than later? This is unlikely as an honest analysis will show that BN’s overwhelming victory was due to the distortion of high postal votes making up 1/3 of the total votes and the local popularity of their candidate, rather than being indicative of any national trend.
There are also two events which BN is likely to wait for before testing the electoral battlefield again.
The first is the Sarawak state election. Unlike other states, Sarawak holds its election on an independent schedule from the general election. This election is normally seen as the bellwether of BN support in the state, and is especially critical now that BN’s power depends heavily on Sarawak’s contribution of parliamentary seats. In 2008, Sarawak contributed 30 seats out of a possible 31, which is not an inconsiderable 21% of BN’s total parliamentary seats.
The next state election in Sarawak must be held by May 2011 but there is keen speculation that the ailing white-haired raja Taib Mahmud may hold it next year.
The next event which BN will do well to wait for is the delineation exercise for electoral boundaries, which will start in March 2011 and will take at least a year to complete. Gerrymandering of electoral boundaries to influence outcome is a time-honoured tactic beloved of ruling parties.
