The Pakatan Federal Government

By Hakim Joe

Things and events do not bode well for the Opposition. To win by a simple majority, Pakatan would need to win more than 65% of the votes, and that is being optimistic about it. 

 

Will this become a reality after the next Federal Elections? Pakatan Rakyat will have the best opportunity to form the next Federal Government then. If they fail to do so, the next one after that (before 2018) will be just too far in the distant to contemplate and would also have permitted the Najib administration to entrench and strengthen themselves, that it would perhaps prove to be impossible to dislodge. 

But then again I might be wrong. With the ultra lob sided policy of helping themselves, these people might just cross the invisible line of no return, or shoot themselves on their own feet frequent enough to become gangrenous. 

To state that the majority of Malaysians are plain tired of the BN government would be a lie. No matter how we decry the fact that the people are being systematically discriminated upon, there exist a large segment of the population that survives on the handouts from Umno. These are the people that are fully indoctrinated by the Malay’s Special Rights and Social Contract and truly believe that the other half of the Malaysians exist only to serve their needs. These are the hardcore Umno supporters. 

And then there is the segment that prospers on the handouts from Umno. Do these people believe in fairness and equality? The problem for them is not what they choose to believe in but how they can make a quick buck out from it. In fact, if they know for certain that being fair will earn them a few bucks, I am certain that they will go for it, that is until the next opportunity to make another buck turns up. 

Additionally, there is the small segment that can be considered financially secured (plus or minus a few hundred of millions Ringgit) that is on an ego trip to amass the type of political power that will make them untouchable now and in the future. Ditto their hanger-on (aka cronies to a few and parasites to the majority). These groups of people can be trusted to give their undying support to the political party that had provided them with such a power base. 

Lastly, there is this segment which needs to secure the authoritative positions bestowed upon them by BN to remain where they are. Status quo is what they need to continue doing what they have done so far. Some might just be starting off and require the present government to stay put while they do their thing and some might be on their last legs and require the same in order to protect what they have amassed. What good is a RM40 million mansion of epic proportions if it is seized by the authorities? 

For these people, having the same political party in power as the federal government is not only the minimum requirement, it is mandatory for their survival. The threat of having to spend time in jail is not exactly the type of mental recreational pastime to sustain them on their retirement. These are the people that Pakatan will need to confront. To win them over would require a blanket amnesty or some sort of an arrangement that could conversely be proven detrimental in the long run. But then again, becoming the next Federal Government is of utmost priority. Bagan Pinang was probably a very good example of how BN might still be able to win the next federal elections. Add a touch of postal votes and the pendulum starts swinging in their direction. Just a pinch of gerrymandering and a half teaspoon of angpows will sway the pendulum even more. (No one ever said that it was supposed to be a fair fight.) 

The feasibility of Pakatan assuming federal power will depend a lot on approximately 17% of the overall Malaysian population, or about 4.6 million people. If half of these people vote Pakatan in the next elections, the viability becomes evident. Should this happen, the probability of Pakatan Rakyat becoming the next federal government can almost be assured. Half of 57 parliamentary seats (including Labuan) should just about clinch it for Pakatan on a simple majority. 

And what should the leaders of Pakatan do should they assume the position as the Federal Government? Will they go on a massive manhunt to investigate past wrongdoings to punish those who had illegally profited through their former positions of power, or will they hold this as a constant threat to make them conform? If everything holds true, it will be a bit of both. Some will be held ransom and some will be made examples of but three things are for certain. One, there will be a lot of people being politely asked to retire quietly. Two, there will be a mass migration overseas to countries without an extradition treaty with Malaysia and three, the local lawyers will become (not rich but) richer.  

As and when a new party becomes the government, there will be a lot of shuffling and a lot of posturing. A government bureaucracy is after all a humungous network of power grabbers. For those who had missed out during the elections, this is the opportunity to stand up and be counted. Constant in-fighting will be the event of the day (initially) until everything stabilizes but who cares? The new Pakatan government would have the next five years to sort things out and it had better be sorted out by then if they want to continue governing the country. 

But I am overtaking events by the assumption that Pakatan could really have a fair chance of winning. Even assuming that they had won it, there is still a minute chance that BN could secure sufficient PR frogs to alter the situation akin to the Perak Fiasco. With a healthy war chest and truckloads of past records in confidential files, anything could happen.  

Let us get back to the two by-elections that were won by BN. One was in the BN stronghold where half of the abovementioned critical 17% lives whilst the other stronghold is south of Selangor. Both areas hostile to PR’s ambitions, but in the vital areas where the Opposition specifically needs to concentrate all their efforts on. Mere belief and reliance on the Northern and Central peninsula states to carry them through is wishful thinking and impossible to achieve with only 103 parliamentary seats on offer (Perlis, Kedah, Perak, KL, Putrajaya, Penang & Kelantan). 

An indication of whether PR can go all the way this time will be the Sarawak state elections and BN will call for it very soon and not wait till the very end (May 2011), the reason being having the time to hand out more goodies should the results prove disastrous. And what are the results that could be judged a disaster for BN? The answer is the Opposition winning more seats this time around than in 2006, and the magical number is nine. Anything less than 9 could see a snap federal election as well. 

That Pakatan’s challenge will be greater this time around is a forgone conclusion. One, it cuts out multiple challenges for a single seat from the Opposition parties. Two, campaigning can be conducted together and this will be more far reaching than any individual effort. Three, common resources can be shared and henceforth have a greater impact, especially when a concerted effort is channeled towards a mutual goal. But will it be enough? 

Look at the numbers. The southern peninsula states (NS, Melaka & Johor) have a total of 40 parliamentary seats and the eastern peninsula states (Terengganu & Pahang) have 22 seats. These pro-establishment states command a total of 62 seats. Add that to the 57 across the South China Sea and the number become 119. 

103 versus 119 is a recipe for a PR catastrophe. The postal votes would see to that. (There are approximately 120,000 personnel in the military and 92,000 personnel within PDRM.) The Home Ministry intends to increase the PDRM personnel to 150,000 by 2012. And then there are the government civil servicemen (and women) that are allowed to register as postal voters should they be on duty during the elections. Another thing one should know is that the spouses and family members of uniformed personnel living in the camps are also categorised as postal voters (if they are eligible to vote). BTW, the army is building a massive military camp in Pekan. (Anyone wanna bet it’ll be ready and fully staffed before the next elections?) 

Things and events do not bode well for the Opposition. To win by a simple majority, Pakatan would need to win more than 65% of the votes, and that is being optimistic about it. Hate being the rabble-rouser here (remembering the “Diehard Hardcore PR Supporters’ Oath”) but unless the PR hierarchy does something substantial now and especially with the abovementioned 17% of the population, Pakatan lawmakers will remain seated on the “other” side of Parliament. 

2018 is just too distant in the future. 
 

Note: The “Diehard Hardcore PR Supporters’ Oath” can be accessed at:
http://malaysia-today.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=25695:diehard-hardcore-pr-supportersa-oath&catid=71:archives-2009&Itemid=100106