Lessons of the 12th General Elections For Sarawakians To Ponder
An Analysis of Malaysia’s 12th General Election
With comments in red by Sarawak Headhunter.
1. Introduction
In our pre-election analysis, we estimated that the Opposition parties will win about 50 parliamentary seats and face a very strong challenge from DAP-Keadilan in Penang. We also warned of the strong wind blowing in the Indian and Chinese communities towards the Opposition. We did not and could not then anticipate the equally strong wave of Malay support for the Opposition which resulted in the Opposition gaining 82 seats in Parliament, denying the Barisan Nasional of its two-thirds majority, the first time since the May 1969 General Election.
The wins probably took the Opposition by surprise as well. In spite of fielding many unknown and untested candidates, the electorate voted for them. We now see the trust placed by the Opposition and the electorate being betrayed by a few of them for personal gains – for these few it will be their first and last wins.
The Opposition has to ensure that the right candidates are chosen for the coming Sarawak State Elections. The Opposition must also make sure that it identifies and gives as strong backing as it can to the candidate with the best potential to become the next Chief Minister of Sarawak. Time is running out and no such person has yet been put forward by the Opposition.
We had in our pre-election analysis noted the possibility of a divided outcome with a strong Malay government against a strong non-Malay Opposition. However, this did not materialize as Malay support for the Opposition was also strong resulting in multi racial Keadilan winning 31 seats and PAS 23 seat in Parliament. In fact, the popular votes obtained by UMNO (35.5%) and combined PAS/Keadilan (34.8%) was almost equal. Whilst the loss of Penang state to the Opposition did not come as a surprise after the first week of campaign with massive turnout at DAP ceramahs and large donations collected on the spot for the DAP candidates, the fall of Perak and Selangor was totally unexpected. What happened? What caused the massive swing?
Some facts on the 12th General Election should be noted and analysed. The Barisan Nasional within Peninsular Malaysia failed to obtain a majority of popular votes cast. It only obtained 49% of the popular votes in Peninsular Malaysia whereas the Opposition had the majority of popular votes – 51%. UMNO won 35% of popular votes against 34.8% won by PAS and Keadilan. Although the Barisan Nasional won 140 seats in Parliament, 54 seats came from Sabah and Sarawak.
Obviously Sarawak and Sabah somehow did not get a sense of what was happening in Malaya. Internet penetration is still very low and the Opposition is not only totally blacked out from the daily newspapers and TV but completely vilified. The logistics and expense of campaigning in Sarawak and Sabah also put the Opposition at a great disadvantage, while the State BN has no qualms about abusing government machinery, staff and facilities in campaigning with impunity.
The Opposition will have to come up with answers at the very least to neutralise all these or turn them to its advantage.
The Sarawak electorate, especially in the rural areas, do not like to be perceived as being anti-government or lawan perintah. To overcome this the Opposition has to start behaving and being perceived as a government in waiting rather than being perpetual troublemakers and nuisances as the State BN is fond of painting them.
It is high time to start concentrating on creating policy rather than merely running Taib and his minions down. The voters already know what Taib and his evil regime are. The question now is whether the Opposition can show that they are different and can put forward solid plans for reform in all the areas that matter, especially with regard to land and equitable economic development.
Notwithstanding that, Taib is now at his weakest and attacking him and bringing him down will lead to disarray in the ranks of his followers, none of whom may be described as leaders in any real sense of the word.
So, without Sabah and Sarawak, Barisan Nasional will not have even obtained a simple majority in Parliament. If the Federal Territory was to be considered as a state, the Barisan Nasional actually lost 6 states. In Negeri Sembilan, it survives with only a 4-seat majority. In Pahang, Barisan Nasional even lost the state capital, Kuantan. Even the Barisan Nasional fortress of Johor was successfully penetrated by the Opposition this time with both DAP and PAS winning seats. There are no safe bastions for Barisan Nasional anymore.
