Drawing from the Umno ‘fixed deposit’
Written by Zaki Samsudin, CPI
When Umno suffered an acute loss of voter confidence in the 1999 general election (GE), many political analysts predicted that the party would be buried by the next GE. The majority of Malay voters were seen to have shifted their allegiance and beginning to favour Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) and Parti KeADILan Nasional. It was rationalized that if the Malays themselves had rejected Umno, then the party was no longer relevant and would soon become obsolete.
Such was the general perception in the heat of the election aftermath. Many from the opposition, especially those in PAS and KeADILan at that time were already dreaming of sitting in Putrajaya by the following GE. Nonetheless, when the 2004 election came around, not only did Umno survive, it rose to greater heights and made a clean sweep of 90 percent of the seats it contested. Here was a reverse scenario where PAS and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) were the ones facing a genuine possibility of being obliterated.
The general election of Mac 2008 again saw the Umno dominance of the political landscape coming under threat. Barisan Nasional, of which Umno is the backbone, tumbled in five states and failed to obtain a two-third majority in parliament. Once more, Umno’s continued lifespan was questioned and the opposition alliance began entertaining the hope that the federal government was now within its grasp.
But the truth is, Umno is not a mosquito party. Umno has been in the political arena since the 1950s. Hence, if there are among supporters of the opposition coalition entertaining the thought that Umno might so easily collapse in the coming GE, they should be more circumspect in making their predictions. What can come to pass is another big win for BN and Umno as occurred in 2004.
The most evident strength of Umno is the huge number of loyal supporters that it has. And Malays loyal to Umno no matter what are those who are older (aged 50 and above) and those in the civil service.
