The chances of winning
In order to win, PR must grasp 50% of Malay votes. If the situation worsens, it must at least get 40% of Malay votes, 70% of Chinese votes and 50% of Indian votes in order to win.
By LIM SUE GOAN/ Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE/ Sin Chew Daily
The Hulu Selangor by-election electioneering has been heating up and BN is acting more aggressively, showing greater desire to win than PR. If the situation remains unchanged in the next few days, I am afraid that PR may have to see little known MIC Information Chief P. Kamalanathan to walk into the Parliament hall soon.
In addition to traditional methods like funding and development plans, BN also attacked the personal conduct of PR candidate Datuk Zaid Ibrahim, as well as the party withdrawal of PKR members.
Zaid’s honesty of admitting drinking may win approval from some voters but for kampung residents, it may be controversial.
To eliminate the negative factor, it depends on PAS veterans. Therefore, it is crucial whether PAS will help Zaid to disinfect in kampung and reclamation areas in the following few days.
After the withdrawal of Bakar Arang state assemblyman Tan Wei Shu, it is now the Selangor grassroots leaders’ turn. The head of the Shah Alam branch of Angkatan Muda Keadilan (AMK), PKR’s youth wing, Nor’isham Manap and six other grassroots leaders quit the party on Sunday (18 April) night and on Monday morning, Hulu Selangor Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) Treasurer Datuk Dr Halili Rahmat, who had been shortlisted as the PKR candidate for the Hulu Selangor by-election, has also quit the party to join UMNO.
Maybe there will be more PKR leaders and members to quit the party or those who have quit may openly attack opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim when campaigning, in order to create an effect that “PKR is a mess and Anwar is incompetent”.
BN may still have some tricks yet to be played and PR will fight back. But BN has got the upper hand.
In order to win, PR must grasp 50% of Malay votes.
If the situation worsens, it must at least get 40% of Malay votes, 70% of Chinese votes and 50% of Indian votes in order to win.
There are 64,500 eligible voters in Hulu Selangor with 34,020 (53.74%) of them are Malays, 16,964 (26.3%) are Chinese and 12,453 (19.31%) are Indians. If PR is able to gain 40% or 13,608 Malay votes, 11,874 (70%) Chinese votes and 6226 (50%) Indian votes, the total votes it gains will be 31,708 (it is impossible to have 100% of turnout rate), it can then cross the threshold of victory.
According to an unofficial survey, BN obtained 55% of Malay votes, 37% of Chinese votes and 51% of Indian votes in the 8 March general elections. Based on such a voting trend, PR must work harder in Malay and Chinese communities.
PR must also hope for the help of BN’s internal problems. For example, the MIC grassroots were dissatisfied when Datuk G. Palanivel was not selected as the BN candidate, while UMNO grassroots also fought to be fielded before. If part of MIC and UMNO members refuse to cast their votes or cast invalid votes, Zaid will then get benefit from it.
In addition, MCA has 8000 members in Hulu Selangor. If all of them vote for BN, PR will sure lose. But the MCA party crisis has just ended and, of course, PR hopes that they are still affected by the party crisis.
PR may defeat the powerful BN only by hoping for a little miracle.
