Writing’s on the wall in Hulu Selangor

It is by-election time again in Malaysia. This time, the fight is for the federal seat in Hulu Selangor, a constituency that the Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) won by a slight margin two years ago.

Therefore, a similar result for or against the PKR on Sunday will not say very much about sympathy swings.

A big win by one side or the other, on the other hand, will need careful and prolonged study. Undoubtedly, a prominent victory for the Barisan Nasional (BN) will be encouraging for the administration of Prime Minister Najib Razak, whose attempts at projecting itself as a government that will reform the country lack credibility. It will also fill its sails for the next by-election, due to take place in the BN-held constituency of Sibu in Sarawak on May 16.

Similarly, a victory for PKR and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) in Hulu Selangor will encourage it to mobilise its limited resources towards winning in this crucial state.

A PKR win in the Malay-majority constituency of Hulu Selangor will put its candidate, Mr Zaid Ibrahim, the former law minister sacked from the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) 16 months ago, back into Parliament. Once there, he will be able to strengthen his considerable stature within the opposition, perhaps for the eventuality of leading the coalition should opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim be convicted of sodomy and be jailed.

It will also mean that Mr Zaid’s past sins will be politically defused in the public eye. Since campaigning started, revelations had been flooding the media about him having been an imbiber of alcohol and an owner of a race horse, and also for having an appetite for women. He has said that was all in his past.

One heavy blow to Mr Anwar is the defection of Dr Halili Rahmat, a close ally who was the party’s division treasurer in Hulu Selangor. Dr Halili ran in this constituency in 1999 but lost.

Apparently, PKR’s choice of Mr Zaid was one slight too many for Dr Halili. He left PKR to join Umno right in the middle of campaigning. What worries PKR further is that more defections have been announced, including two from its women’s wing in Perak. Four days earlier, its assemblyman for Bakar Arang in Kedah left the party as well, to become an independent.

Compared to PKR, where defections have been taking place briskly, its allies – the Democratic Action Party and Parti Islam SeMalaysia – appear stable and united. It is this strength that the coalition will use to bandage PKR’s wounds, and to minimise the damage that character attacks on Mr Zaid may be causing.

This by-election in Selangor, PKR’s biggest prize in the general elections, holds great importance for the state’s Menteri Besar, Mr Khalid Ibrahim. Mr Khalid is leading the PKR campaign, and while a small loss will not hurt his position, a big win will provide much needed validation for his corporate style of leadership.

The ethnically-mixed voter base also provides PKR with a chance to show that its multiracial agenda holds appeal even in a rural area. A loss would suggest that the coalition has been unable to make inroads into Umno’s traditional base.

In many ways then, this by-election is configuring the future of the PKR. The fact that the opposition coalition chose to announce its fourth member – the Sarawak National Party (Snap) – in the middle of the campaigning is aimed at raising the credibility and the sustainability of the PKR and to creep-start the Sibu campaigning.

Experts have ventured that PKR cannot make an impact in Sarawak and Sabah if it did not include local members. This latest development will give Mr Anwar’s supporters a big boost.

For BN as much as for PKR, the run-up to the by-election this Sunday has scrawled some writing in indelible ink on the wall. Although Umno did not insist that one of its own should be a candidate, it arm-twisted its ally, the Malaysian Indian Congress, to pick MIC information chief P Kamalanathan instead of party deputy president G Palanivel. This was done despite strong MIC resistance.

Unhappiness in Umno and MIC ranks manifested itself in the form of two independents defying coalition protocol and registering as independent candidates. They were quickly chastised, and sulkily withdrew.

How the altered balance of power within BN is handled in all coming elections will be the biggest juggling act that awaits its members.

The writer is a Fellow at the Institute of South-east Asian Studies. His latest book is Pilot Studies for a New Penang (co-edited with Goh Ban Lee).