Hulu Selangor – Sakmongkol’s final take
It’s written in the stars. The outcome of today’s election in Hulu Selangor. Nothing that I can say, do of hope can alter what is already fated. Today, the people of Hulu Selangor will come out to vote. The parliamentary seat of Hulu Selangor has some 64.500 voters. 53-54% of the voters are Malay. 26% are Chinese while Indians constitute about 19% of the voters. Usually, in by-elections, voter turnout is around 80% of eligible voters.
Much as I want UMNO to win, objectively, my assessment is as follows.
In early April, I wrote as follows:-
Katalah yang keluar mengundi ialah sebanyak 80% atau lebih kurang 50,000 orang.
Bagaimana rakyat mengundi? Rakyat akan undi mengikut citarasa perkauman.
Daripada 50,000, pengundi Melayu sebanyak 26,500. Dari jumlah ini BN munkin hanya dapat 45% iaitu sebanyak 12,000.
Dari 50,000 jumlah pengundi cina yang keluar mengundi ialah 13,000 orang. BN mungkin hanya dapat 10% undi orang cina atau sebanyak 1500.
Daripada 50,000 tersebut, pengundi India hanya 19% atau 10,000.
Berapa pengudni India yang MIC mampu serahkan kepada BN? Paling kuat saya rasa 40% atau hanya 4,000 orang.
As I move around at the frontlines, incognito most of the time, my prediction will be as follows:-
PR will get about 55% of the Malay voters. That’s about 14,000 votes. How so?
While we celebrate and make merry at the crossovers to BN- legislators here and there, former PKR women leaders and all that, those crossovers were good for morale boosters. Good hype medicine in isolation. Put in context, they mean nothing because they don’t bring in votes.
The one bringing votes to PR are the ground troops. These are done through the whisperers who move seamlessly among the voters, unnoticed most of the times. The ketua kampongs, the imams, the ahsos and nyonyas who have formed ‘kutu groups’ among themselves and hear this- the UMNO ketua cawangans who are practicing what PM Najib has declared- people first. They have translated it to mean, their interest first- land title, free water, good governance etc. the ones getting votes are the UMNO ketua cawangans who meet Zaid Ibrahim on the side pledging support in return for immediate self gratification. The ones getting votes are the Indian achis and ayyas whom are largely ignored by Samy Vely and his people. The Chinese? They have remained politically defiant, being anti establishment most of the times.
It is against this background that the contenders go into the battleground today.
