Riding on very high stakes
Voters in Hulu Selangor are voting a new MP today but the outcome of their decision may have larger implications on the direction of national politics.
The Star
HULU Selangor has a large number of cemeteries and local residents have lots of ghost stories to tell. But after everything is over today, the only stories they will be talking about will be political ones.
This remote, quiet but beautiful area has been thrust into the national spotlight the last couple of weeks.
Today, the 60,000-plus voters in this parliamentary constituency will vote for a new MP and the outcome of their decision will have far-reaching implications on national politics.
Some are even calling it a defining moment in Malaysia’s changing political landscape. It is certainly a significant by-election but it is not as dramatic as all that.
It is the 10th by-election to have happened since March 2008, and one of the most evenly matched in terms of resources and funds on both sides.
Hulu Selangor, which has 54% Malays, 26% Chinese and 19% Indians, is almost a microcosm of Malaysia. Logically, this is the kind of mixed seat where the multi-racial PKR ought to do well in. Yet PKR has been struggling through much of the campaign.
It has been an unfamiliar situation for them to be in after sailing through so many other by-elections.
PKR does not have the grassroots organisation that parties such as Umno, PAS or MCA boast of. Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim had limitations as the election director. He is a better technocrat than he is a politician and he seemed to lack the political instincts needed to run a campaign of this nature.
Were it not for the organisational skills of the DAP and the grassroots network of PAS, he would have been in even more dire straits. The party is still very much a transplanted entity in Selangor and has yet to really take root.
The party found itself fighting a very organised Barisan machinery.
It had a big name candidate in Datuk Zaid Ibrahim while the Barisan fielded a virtual unknown P. Kamalanathan. Yet, the big name had to struggle to defend his image while the newcomer Kamalanathan was so issueless that he was in danger of appearing rather bland.
By the time the campaign came to a close last night the fight had extended beyond the two men to a more complicated set of issues some of which had little to do with the people of Hulu Selangor.
The battle line is quite clearly drawn where the Chinese and Indian votes are concerned.
The Malay vote, because of its size and the complexity of the issues, has been a little more difficult to predict. They have been the main battleground in the final days of campaigning and they will have a big say on how things turn out today.
Umno stronghold
Hulu Selangor has been Umno territory since Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib’s days as Selangor Mentri Besar. But Umno is taking nothing for granted.
Knowing that some Malays were still unhappy about the seat going to MIC, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad went in on Thursday night to endorse Kamalanathan. Dr Mahathir had promised not to campaign but he seemed more than happy to go back on his word and everyone commented on how well he looked despite the wet weather.
Last night, he took to the stage with the Prime Minister. This time, he gave a powerful endorsement to Najib whose performance he has been closely watching the last one year.
Bagan Pinang assemblyman Tan Sri Mohd Isa Samad, who remarried recently, should be on his honeymoon now. But his new wife Puan Sri Bibi Sharliza Khalid, a former Puteri leader, said he has been speaking at one ceramah or another every night and they only get into bed at 2am.
Isa’s role has been to placate the Malays, to tell them he won well in Bagan Pinang because the Malays and Indians stood behind him and that is why they should now stand behind Kamalanathan.
But the powerful PAS leader Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat arrived in Hulu Selangor on Saturday where he defended Zaid against the allegations of drinking and owning race horses.
Even the late Teoh Beng Hock “joined” the campaign in the final few days. A giant banner of him went up in Batang Kali demanding, “Justice for Teoh Beng Hock”.
It was a sombre, black-and-white portrait of the boyish-looking Teoh, an image that is quite iconic by now, but it was also a stark reminder of the most emotive episode in Malaysian politics last year. The reminder was DAP’s way of locking in the Chinese vote.
On Friday morning, DAP leader Lim Kit Siang called a very strategic press conference where he announced that Zaid was trailing behind Barisan. The admission shocked some reporters because parties contesting an election rarely admit they may lose.
But it was classic reverse psychology to rally the fence-sitters and outstation Chinese voters to the ballot box.
His target was mainly the Chinese voters because Pakatan was pushing for a record 85% support from the Chinese ground.
Both sides began the campaign on lofty premises. Barisan’s slogan was “Sayangi Selangor, Yakini BN” (Love Selangor, believe in the BN). Pakatan went on the platform of “Selamatkan Malaysia” or Save Malaysia.
But the campaign has been dominated by highly personal issues. It has been tit-for-tat between the two sides.
Zaid was hit left, right and centre by revelations concerning his liberal lifestyle. He went from being a dream candidate for Pakatan to a very defensive man as his personal habits became a talking point.
Kamalanathan also had to defend allegations in the Internet regarding his academic qualifications and even his sexuality.
Hulu Selangor is actually a well-taken care of constituency despite its backward sounding prefix. It has a good network of roads and a legacy of amenities and facilities thanks to its history as an administrative hub.
Every small town in the area has a community hall, some of which are of a rather impressive scale and which PKR, now that it is in the state government, was able to utilise to the fullest.
As such, it was quite difficult for them to exploit development issues. Decades of Barisan rule had come with development for the people.
Still, whoever wins, Hulu Selangor is going to end up better off than before the by-election.
Roads have undergone instant repairs, land issues have been immediately addressed and overnight allocations made for all sorts of things. And of course, there are all the “goodies” being passed out to voters.
So what were the issues in this much-watched by-election?
For Malays it was about which party/coalition best represented them as a race and as Muslims.
Among the Chinese, national issues like justice and corruption came into play. The Indian electorate was still caught in a time warp of welfare and living standards issues.
But a great deal of the issues aired on the nightly ceramah circuit had little to do with the constituency. Ceramah topics were raised to amuse and titillate rather than provoke serious thought and action.
Umno’s ceramah went along the theme of “Kisah Benar,” where speakers targeted the three “anak Ibrahims,” namely Anwar Ibrahim, Khalid Ibrahim and Zaid Ibrahim, all of whom used to be part of Umno.
On the Pakatan side, the main targets were Umno and Najib, the biggest obstacles to their quest for federal power.
Anwar is still the most-compelling speaker who knows how to hold the crowd with a mix of fact, fiction and wit.
No crowd is too big or small for him to entertain. For instance, speaking in a dimly lit-coffeeshop in Ulu Bernam, he entertained the largely Chinese and Indian crowd with the Chinese and Tamil phrases he had picked up over the years.
He campaigned with such great passion, as though his political life depended on this election.
All the Pakatan leaders steered clear of the sodomy trial. Only Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail spoke about it.
There was a great deal of discussion when Najib joined the hustings. By-elections are usually led by the Deputy Prime Minister but Najib felt he had to play his part in securing a win.
Referendum of sorts
The by-election comes after his first year in office and he has a lot riding on the polls. Like it or not, it will be seen as some sort of referendum on his administration and how the people perceive him as Prime Minister and the policies he has put in place.
The stakes are quite high for both sides because Malaysians are going to read deep into the implications of the outcome.
A win for PKR would boost Pakatan’s hope of capturing Putrajaya. It would mean Anwar has support and it would alleviate to some extent his dilemma over the sodomy trial.
A win for Barisan would give Najib, his government and his party a tremendous morale booster after being defeated in so many by-elections since 2008.
Najib’s approval ratings shot up by 15% in the last one year. Winning this by-election would be a confirmation of changing sentiments on the ground and of his popularity as a leader.
The campaign began with four candidates. It then narrowed down to a straight fight between Kamalanathan and Zaid.
But as the campaign wound to a close yesterday, it seemed as though the fight was between Najib and Anwar.
