Dr Ong Explains: Hulu Selangor
Last Sunday, I woke up in Durham, North Carolina to the news that BN was on its way to victory in the Hulu Selangor by-election with a small majority of approximately 1,500 votes. The final majority was 1,725 in BN’s favour. A week later, as I sit here in Petaling Jaya, I’m still somewhat surprised, perhaps not so much by the fact that BN has emerged victorious in this crucial by-election but by the way in which this seat was won.
I had earlier predicted, with some confidence, that PKR’s Zaid Ibrahim would win this tough and hard fought race by a margin of between 1,000 to 1,500 votes. My prediction was based on the following three assumptions in regard to racial voting: (1) that BN’s Malay vote share would not exceed 60%, (2) that its Indian vote share would not exceed 50%, and (3) that its Chinese vote share would not exceed 30%.
The polling station results showed that first two of three assumptions were wrong and that the BN’s Chinese vote share was far below that which was anticipated.
I had anticipated a small swing in the Malay vote in favour of BN, from approximately 55% to 58%. The swing in Malay support is consistent with a larger, national trend of Prime Minister Najib Razak’s increasing popularity among the Malay electorate.
I had assumed that the presence of split voting in favour of Zaid and the control of the Selangor state government by Pakatan would be able to prevent BN’s Malay vote share to rise above 60%. Even the last-minute handouts to the Felda settlers did not alter my assumption since these voters already vote for BN in large numbers in previous elections.
Using returns at the polling station level, I estimated BN’s Malay support at a surprisingly high 66%, still lower than the estimated 70% garnered at the state seat level in 2008, but most definitely higher than the upper limit of 60% that I thought the BN could achieve.
The anticipated Malay/UMNO backlash against the selection of an MIC candidate did not materialise. The galvanising of the local UMNO machinery in support for the MIC candidate was certainly surprising, especially given the initial poisoned political environment.
