Will Malaysia follow suit?
The bloodbath is just about to start. Bangkok is now paralyzed with tension and fear that the violence of April 10th and yesterday are but just a prelude to an all out fight between the Red Shirts and the Thai army controlled by the pro-monarchy coalition government.
By Hakim Joe
The attempted assassination of a renegade red shirt leader, Major General Khattiya Sawasdipol, might prove to be the catalyst that will impel the fast deteriorating crisis into the abyss as the Red Shirts’ plight is now attracting far wider support from the common people. “Seh Daeng” remains on life support from the head wound. Before April 10, a Red Shirt rally would only attract perhaps 50,000 people. The rally on April 11 attracted more than a quarter million people, all dressed in red, to protest against a government who would send out its army against the same people whom they promised to protect.
So far, King Bhumibol Adulyadej has not stepped out to intervene on the ever-increasing crisis as he is recuperating from his illness, or so it seems. Those who act on his behalf are keeping quiet lest their actions worsen the situation. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva now resides within the compounds of a military camp, guarded 24 hours a day, and almost all of the politicians aligned with the PM and the Yellow Shirts are living in fear of retribution.
So, what exactly happened in Thailand? The coverage of this neighboring calamity in Malaysia seems almost non-existent as ASEAN’s non-intervention policy seems to be the factor that is stopping the reporting of an escalating conflict right on our doorstep. For those who think this, you must have been living on the far side of the moon.
The one major factor contributing to this non-existent news coverage is that the Malaysian government does not want its people to learn from it or to follow it. A government can only be displaced by its citizens at the polls or through a revolution. Initially, the Thai protestors started these demonstrations peacefully as a way to protest against their “unelected” government. However, power grows from the barrel of a gun and that a revolution “walks on two feet – one political and the other military”.
Only when violence escalates will there be a solution. A government will disregard a peaceful rally but it cannot afford to ignore the people when bullets are flying. This show of military force by the Red Shirts is the means to force the Abhisit administration to sit up and pay attention. When protestors die from bullet wounds only will the entire country wake up to this crisis.
How did the situation deteriorate from a peaceful country to a war zone?
The trouble started in 2006 when Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra was ousted from his position following a military coup. Why would the military involve itself in politics when the Thai economy was robust and the people were happy? Ask any level-headed Thai resident and they will tell you that Thaksin was more popular than the monarchy, and that was the start of all his troubles.
Thaksin was basically a poor people’s PM. He introduced a range of semi-effective policies to alleviate rural poverty which helped reduce poverty in Thailand by half in a matter of four years. He also launched the country’s first universal healthcare program as well as a highly popular drug suppression campaign. Thaksin’s economic policies accelerated Thailand’s economic recovery and GDP grew from 4.9 trillion baht in 2001 to 7.1 trillion baht five years later. Thailand repaid its debts from the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis to the International Monetary Fund two years ahead of schedule. People tend to be happy when there is food on the table.
Additionally, the Stock Exchange of Thailand outperformed other markets in the region. Public sector debt fell from 57% of GDP in January 2001 to 41% in September 2006. Foreign exchange reserves doubled from US$30 billion in 2001 to US$64 billion in 2006. Poverty fell by half, from 21.3% in 2001 to 11.3% in 2006. Thaksin also implemented major educational reforms, chief among them the decentralization of all schools, initiation of the Student Loan Fund and Income Contingency Loan programs to help the poor gain access to higher education. Thai banks traditionally do not grant education loans. Thaksin forced them to do it.
How would not the people but love and respect this person? That was actually his downfall. The Yellow Shirts or pro-monarchy factions were afraid that Thaksin is now even more popular and respected than the King himself. They were scared that their positions are now violated and something must be done to bring about the downfall of this person lest the situation becomes worse and that they do not have a say any longer in Thai politics. In comes the military. Then later, the coup when Thaksin was abroad attending a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly.
One year later in 2007 when general elections were called, the pro-Thaksin People’s Power Party (PPP) won 226 parliamentary seats (out of a total of 480) despite direct suppression from the junta. Thaksin’s party in which he became the Thai PM, Thai Rak Thai (TRT), was dissolved a few month’s earlier by the order of the Constitutional Tribunal for violation of election laws and most of these TRT politicians have joined the PPP instead. That is how popular Thaksin was and still remains so. Before he was ousted and TRT still the government, it commanded 460 out of the total 500 seats. That is 92%. Thaksin returned to Thailand after the PPP triumph. He failed to return after attending the Beijing Olympics as trouble mounted at home. The People’s Power Party was later dissolved by the Constitutional Court on December 2, 2008.
When the royalists took control of Parliament in 2008, they were there by default and not through common vote. That is why the Red Shirts are protesting for new elections to be called. The current government of Thailand knows that they will lose any election now or any held in the near future. Thaksin’s supporters are everywhere.
Revolution walks on two feet – one political and the other military.
