Wait another ten years and see what happens (UPDATED with Chinese Translation)

ARCHIVES 2010

By MT Webmaster On May 18, 2010

Pakatan Rakyat may be a bit too early for its time. But never mind. Pakatan Rakyat would become more relevant as Barisan Nasional becomes more irrelevant. It might need another two elections for this to happen. But by or before 2020, either Barisan Nasional changes its political-style or it will get swept away for eternity.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Bernama has come out with a very interesting analysis on Sunday’s by-election in Sibu, which you can read below. I can agree to some of what Bernama said. But there is more to what the voters look at in choosing their government.

The majority of the voters are ‘selfish’. And when I say ‘selfish’ I am talking about ‘what do I get by voting for you?’ They will vote for you only if they can benefit from doing so. And different voters have different needs. So there is no ‘one medicine can cure all’ formulation. Each voter’s needs need to be addressed separately.

The poorer segment of society would look at how much money they can get by voting for you. When they are earning a few hundred Ringgit a month, then the RM1,000 you pay them just before Polling Day is a king’s ransom as far as they are concerned. So they will vote for you if you pay them RM1,000 for their vote. RM1,000 for an hour’s work of voting for you represents maybe two months hard labour for them.

But not every Malaysian fits this category. So you can buy just some of the voters. You can’t buy all 12 million or so voters.

Then there are those more religious people who consider the Afterlife more important than this life. RM1,000 is not enough to buy their votes. To them, RM1,000 is not worth the price they have to pay later, when they die. These people will vote based on what they feel is their religious duty. They will vote for what their religion tells them to do.

And this is where PAS has the advantage.

Then there are those voters who resent being treated as second-class citizens in the country of their birth. They consider themselves Malaysians and want to be treated as Malaysians. So they will vote against any party that treats them as not equal Malaysians and for a party that propagates a one Malaysia for all.

This is where DAP has the advantage.

Then we have the ‘modern’ Malaysian, of whatever ethnicity, those who are exposed to ‘western values’ and uphold good governance or a transparent government — plus an end to racism, discrimination, abuse of power, corruption, police brutality, wastage of public funds, draconian laws, violation of fundamental rights, etc.

This is where PKR has the advantage.

Then you have those who do not care about such ‘noble’ matters. They worry about their children’s education and future. They worry about whether what they are currently earning is enough to pay their cost of living. They worry about the crime rate in their neighbourhood and the juvenile and/or drug problem (and whether their kids are going to get ‘infected’). They worry about the floods every time it rains and the damage to their property. They worry about the bad roads and poor maintenance and the high traffic accident rate in their neighbourhood. And so on and so forth.

In short, these people worry about the day-to-day issues that affect them and their families. And they will ask whether the present government or government representative (wakil rakyat) has done enough to address all these shortcomings. And if they are not satisfied with the service given to their community then they might as well vote for change. After all, what do they have to lose?

Each ‘neighbourhood’ has different problems, issues and priorities.

An estate/Felda worker would focus on the RM1,000 ang pau they received just before Polling Day. A resident in Bangsar would look at ‘global issues’. Chinese in the ‘new villages’ would remind themselves of the Ketuanan Melayu issue and how that has relegated them to second-class citizens. Malays in the kampong would worry about whether they are ‘losing their place’ in a growing economy that is dominated by the non-Malays. An Islamist would do some soul-searching and decide what is the Islamic thing to do.

In short, no two voters have the same shopping list. Each has his or her priority in life and would vote accordingly. Not all would be attracted to the promise of ‘if my candidate wins then I would approve RM5 million for your area’.

In the past, the Malaysian voter was a very simple-minded fellow. It was so easy to pander to their whims and fancies. The Malaysian voter of today is a more complex animal. And many Malaysian politicians are still locked in the 1950s. They still play ‘Merdeka politics’. This may work on those born around the time of Merdeka. But the majority of Malaysians were born after Merdeka. In fact, many were born after ‘May 13’. They are more sophisticated. And they look at things with a more sophisticated mind.

This is where Pakatan Rakyat has the advantage. It has something to offer every ‘taste’. They best Barisan Nasional can do is to play the race card and dish out money. The racists and those destitute people who would sell their soul for RM1,000 would warm up to Barisan Nasional.

How many percent of Malaysians would this represent? In the past it used to be 80% or more — at the time of Merdeka maybe even 90%. Today, it is just about 50%. As time goes on and younger voters ‘enter the market’, this group would be reduced to 30%.

And that would be when Barisan Nasional, or rather the politics of Barisan Nasional, would become irrelevant and ketinggalan zaman (outdated).

The billion-dollar question would be, though, can Pakatan Rakyat survive another ten years while we wait for this to happen? Now, that, I am not able to answer.

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Local Issues Cost BN Sibu Seat

SIBU, May 18 (Bernama) — Barisan Nasional’s failure to retain its stronghold in Sibu in Sunday’s by-election in the parliamentary constituency may be surprising for outsiders but not for locals who had made up their minds much earlier and showed their displeasure by casting their votes against the BN.

Many Sibuans had not been happy with certain local political leaders whom they felt had been ineffective in addressing their woes and powerless to resolve longstanding issues.

They were clearly unhappy over the declining economic situation in this riverine town, which serves as a gateway to a vast hinterland and has led to more and more people having to search for employment elsewhere in other cities and countries.

“I don’t understand why we in Sibu which has plenty of land are unable to bring in investment to create more jobs for the locals. We have been losing out all this while. What we know is some politicians homes have become bigger and bigger,” said a taxi driver who only wanted to be known by the surname of Wong.

Apart from this, he said the people want to see more education institutions set up in Sibu, regardless of whether they were just a branch campuses or a full institutes as this would relieve locals the cost of having to send their children to study at other places.

“It doesn’t matter to us whether Sibu gets just branches of major educational institutions or full colleges or a university. What we want is to be spared the cost of having to send our children to pursue their tertiary education elsewhere. If Miri and Kuching can do that, why not Sibu?” he said.

Kuching and Samarahan have University Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS) branch campuses and some other branches of private universities and colleges while Miri has a branch of Curtin University.

It is not surprising that the deciding factor in the Sibu by-election turned out to be the urban votes, and not the rural votes, which have consistently been favourable to the BN in the last three consecutive elections.

This time around, there was a swing of votes to the DAP when the ballot boxes in urban polling stations were opened. At the end of counting, the votes the DAP candidate Wong Ho Leng received were more than double of the SUPP’s Robert Lau Hui Yew, who stood for the BN.

The opposition’s victory proved to be extra sweet for the DAP as 28 years had passed since it last won the seat when Ling Sie Ming beat SUPP’s Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Dr Wong Soon Kai.

Despite the downpour on the night the results were announced, thousands of DAP supporters had turned up at the vote tallying centre at the Sibu Civic Centre here to cheer their winning candidate.

According to Sarawak-born political analyst Professor James Chin, the voters had sent a clear message to the state leadership that they wanted to see drastic changes.

Chin said another factor (contributing to the BN defeat) was that urban voters, mostly Chinese, were beginning to expect more from the SUPP, which they perceived was a party that had not changed and unable to look after the aspirations of younger voters.

The Monash academician said the outcome of the by-election was an indicator of the increasing political awareness among urban voters.

Another political analyst, Dr Jeniri Amir said the results showed that the BN had not done enough to win the hearts and minds of the people, particularly the Chinese.

“BN has to empathise with the feelings of Sibuans, particularly the Chinese and show that its is sincere in wanting to provide long-term solutions to their problems.

“Feelings matter and the coalition has to tread carefully where this aspect is concerned so that actions that it takes towards helping people, particularly urban people, are not viewed negatively. Winning hearts and minds is paramount,” he said when contacted.

This was particularly on local issues like unemployment, flood mitigation matters and the issue of Native Customary Rights land, which were the main concerns of voters here, said Jeniri.

Probably what the BN needs most now as pointed out by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak is that it needs to rise up with a new spirit and fortitude to wrest back the seat in the next general election.

In this by-election, the BN’s strength in rural areas was intact as its traditional supporters were still with the coalition. It can also take comfort in that despite the major swing in urban voters, 32 per cent of the Chinese voters still voted for the BN.

Wong polled 18,845 votes to win the contest by a 398-vote majority, defeating Hui Yew who polled 18,447 votes and Independent candidate Narawi Haron who only managed 232 votes and lost his deposit.

Najib, who was in Sibu on several occasions during the campaign, had noted that among the factors for the defeat was the approach adopted by the BN’s machinery, which he said was still following the old ways of campaigning.

He said there should have been a more creative and energetic approach to the campaign.

Translated into Chinese at: http://ccliew.blogspot.com/2010/05/blog-post_3343.html