Uncommon Sense with Wong Chin Huat: What’s PKR’s elections all about?
The worst scenario is one in which heated competition leads to a split of the elites and an exodus of voters, regardless of how involved party members are. This will send a signal to many skeptical Malaysians that PKR is just another pack of greedy and power-crazy politicians.
Wong Chin Huat, The Nut Graph
PARTI Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) has become the first major Malaysian political party to hold direct elections which are currently ongoing. The elections will allow the party’s approximately 400,000 members to vote directly not only for their division chiefs but also their president, deputy president, vice-presidents and supreme council members.
Azmin Ali
The elections has already seen some fierce contests and more is likely. Will Azmin Ali, who is popular with the grassroots, win the deputy presidency? Or will relative party newcomer Datuk Zaid Ibrahim be able to persuade members that he is more suitable to lead now that he has confirmed he is running for deputy presidency?
Will these direct elections strengthen PKR‘s democratic image or will it only expose factionalism and the party’s political inexperience? What is the significance of these elections for PKR and ultimately, for the Malaysian political scene? The Nut Graph asks political scientist Wong Chin Huat.
TNG: What is the significance of PKR’s direct elections?
Khalid Ibrahim (file pic)
Wong Chin Huat: The most significant meaning of the PKR elections is the election of a de facto heir for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. This is in the event that he is put behind bars or cannot exercise his leadership for any other reason. As Anwar is also the leader of Pakatan Rakyat (PR), his elected heir may also assume this position, depending on his or her acceptability to PR’s component parties and the Malaysian public.
The second significance of the party elections is the renewal of party leadership in general. Despite denials by the likes of Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, winners will have a better chance to stand as candidates in the next general election. And should PR win at the federal level in the next elections, some of the winners will become ministers at federal and state levels.
What are the different scenarios that could potentially emerge from the PKR elections? What kind of impact would each of these scenarios have for politics in Malaysia?
Several scenarios may emerge depending on the mode of competition, voters’ participation and the unity of the elites after the elections. These scenarios are not exhaustive but relevant for analysis.
Clinton (left) and Obama (© The White House | Flickr)
The best scenario is one [of] heated competition, based on debates on policy and programs that the party should embark on to lead the country, and based on what the candidates can offer. This would energise party members, resulting in high turnout and interest. This would be followed by rivals quickly closing ranks post-elections, similar to the Obama-Clinton primary contest in 2008.
Another scenario would involve heated competition based on personal attacks and horse-trading. This may or may not energise the party membership depending on the resources poured in and the party’s overall image. Party leaders would also close ranks after elections with some consolation appointments made to pacify the losers. This will then be a positive party election ala Barisan Nasional (BN) where generational renewal happens. But the public is unlikely to feel inspired.
The worst scenario is one in which heated competition leads to a split of the elites and an exodus of voters, regardless of how involved party members are. This will send a signal to many skeptical Malaysians that PKR is just another pack of greedy and power-crazy politicians.
The scenarios will have significantly different impact on the next general election. If the first-ever direct party elections is one of positive competition based on vision and calibre, PKR and PR will outshine Umno and BN. It will help galvanise popular support for the next elections.
The second scenario will probably not change the balance of power much between parties and will only provide continuity should Anwar be imprisoned. On the other hand, the worst scenario may see PKR’s decline, and even fasten the pace of Anwar’s trial and Parliament’s dissolution.
