Two crucial electoral battles for BN and PR
The Galas by-election might be a chance for Razaleigh to get back into the mainstream of Umno politics. If the party wins, Najib might entrust him with important tasks since there is no other suitable candidate in Kelantan. If that happens, it is going to bring an impact to Kelantan politics.
By LIM SUE GOAN
Translated by SOONG PHUI JEE, Sin Chew
The impending Galas and Batu Sapi by-elections are different from the previous 11 by-elections since the 2008 general elections as the two by-elections will serve as a benchmark for the next general election and an opportunity to test the mobilization and organizational capabilities of the BN and the Pakatan Rakyat.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has implemented many political and economic programmes ever since he took the office. Although they were able to retrieve Malay and Indian votes in the Hulu Selangor by-election in April this year, the Chinese support rate fell. Six months have passed and would there be any change to the situation?
Most of the voters in Galas and Batu Sapi are Bumiputeras.
Batu Sapi has 60% Bumiputeras voters, and 38% Chinese votes.
In Galas, 61.63% of voters are Malays while 20.08% are Chinese.
The focus of the two by-elections will be on whether Chinese voters would change their voting tendency as shown in the previous by-elections after the 2008 general election.
Both the BN and the Pakatan Rakyat are facing problems in the two constituencies.
The Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) withdrew from the BN coalition on 17 September 2008, trying to become a political kingmaker amidst the political chaos in Sabah.
Sabah has been trapped in a political chaos over the past two years. Datuk Raymond Tan Shu Kiah quit the SAPP and joined Gerakan, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) broke off the relations with Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Musa Aman and former LDP vice-president Datuk Peter Pang En Yin quit and became a pro-BN independent state assembly member.
On the other hand, the Pakatan Rakyat is as well facing many problems. The candidate for the Sabah PKR chairman has been changed for more than one time. In August last year, the then Sabah PKR chairman Azmin Ali reshuffled the state committee and caused a massive political earthquake in Sabah. Later, Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan resigned as party vice-president and as a member of the supreme council and political bureau. PKR leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim managed to persuade Jeffrey to stay on..
Azmin has been in discord with Jeffrey and now they have to face not only the party election but also the Batu Sapi by-election. Is the purpose of central leaders’ visit to Sabah related to the party election or the Batu Sapi by-election? They will sure be distracted. Without a good organization, it is hard to guarantee a victory.
If it ends up as a three-point battle, namely Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) of the BN versus the SAPP and the PKR, the BN will have the edge, with the opposition vote split.
Although the BN is also facing internal problems, the LDP is only unhappy with the Chief Minister, but it still supports the Prime Minister. Moreover, Pang will not dare to cause trouble as he is the state assembly member of Karamunting, which is under the Batu Sapi parliamentary seat.
Sabah is known as the “political fixed deposit” of the BN and thus, the BN cannot afford to lose the battle. Otherwise, it will bring a great impact to the Sabah state election.
If the BN fields Datin Linda Tsen Thau Lin, wife of late Datuk Edmund Chong Ket Wah, it is going to be a by-election worth paying attention to.
As for the Galas by-election, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah is the Barisan by-election director. As a party veteran, he has deep feelings for Umno and will certainly do all he can for the party even though if he has been marginalized.
During the party crisis in 1987, he founded Semangat 46 to carry on the spirit of Umno. After suffering defeats from two general elections, he returned to Umno.
Just like former Negeri Sembilan Mentri Besar Tan Sri Mohd Isa Samad and Bagan Pinang, voters are having a special feeling for Razaleigh and Gua Musang. If they can resolve the factional problem within the party, Umno might make a breakthrough in the Galas by-election before it plans to regain Kelantan.
The Galas by-election might be a chance for Razaleigh to get back into the mainstream of Umno politics. If the party wins, Najib might entrust him with important tasks since there is no other suitable candidate in Kelantan. If that happens, it is going to bring an impact to Kelantan politics.
