Malaysia by-elections: What’s at stake
By Ooi Kee Beng,The Malaysian Insider
Election fatigue is a common complaint in Malaysia today, if not among voters then definitely among politicians.
There have been so many by-elections over the last two years in Malaysia that some are calling for new rules so that they can be avoided in future. Parliamentary or state assembly seats vacated through resignation or death could be simply filled by the party already holding power in the constituency.
Since Malaysian politics is supposedly more about voting for party than person, this solution — though highly unlikely to ever be adopted — does have its merits. Indeed, the consequences of many such elections have most certainly been much less dramatic or significant than the mass media hype had often proclaimed before polling day.
More importantly, what many hope is that the culture of eternal campaigning that passes for Malaysian politics will weaken. It certainly needs reining in — though it must be argued that chances of that happening would be better if the standard of governance were improved than if by-elections were cancelled.
On Thursday, both the state seat of Galas in the Pakatan Rakyat-held state of Kelantan and the parliamentary seat of Batu Sapi in the Barisan Nasional-held of Sabah, will be contested. For now, what significance do the two upcoming by-elections hold?
The Galas seat had traditionally been an Umno-held constituency, and was ceded by a narrow margin to PAS in 2008. Even odds are given to both sides for now, and the loser will not lose much prestige if the polled difference is small.
Things will look different if the victor wins by a substantial margin, unlikely as this may seem. There is speculation that Prime Minister Najib Razak will be encouraged to call for early elections if Umno’s candidate, Abdul Aziz Yusof, convincingly regains the seat for BN.
However, the person whose reputation is more at risk is that of BN campaign director Razaleigh Hamzah, the MP for Gua Musang, to which the constituency of Galas is subsumed. The princeling has been the strongest critical voice within Umno to call for political reforms for quite some time, and suddenly being requested to win votes for the party – and in a part of his constituency where he is weak – leaves him in an unenviable position. He has therefore preferred to canvas for votes at ground level than to make general political statements in the campaign.
One has to wonder if his participation was forced upon him by the party leadership to teach him a lesson and to silence him, at least for a while.
Should PAS candidate Dr Dzulkefli Mohamad prove a success for PR, however, then he has a good chance of rising in the coalition’s hierarchy. One positive development noted in by-elections held since 2008 is that candidates have had to suffer greater public scrutiny than ever before. Dr Dzulkefli, for example, has been beset by rumours of khalwat impropriety.
In general, the Galas showdown is significant because it is supposed — correctly or not — to reveal the state of Malay ground sentiments at the present time.
The case of Batu Sapi is of greater interest. This contest for a parliamentary seat is the first in the East Malaysian state of Sabah since the 2008 general election and is assumed to be able to give some sign of how the state has been affected by changes in the power balance in West Malaysia.
