Polls wins reveal a focused Umno, floundering Pakatan, say analysts
By Shazwan Mustafa Kamal, The Malaysian Insider
The latest by-elections results suggest that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) has lost its Election 2008 momentum, while Barisan Nasional’s (BN) Umno seems to be regaining its winning touch, analysts say.
But they cautioned that BN’s strong win in the Galas state seat, situated within PAS-controlled Kelantan, as well as Sabah’s Batu Sapi parliamentary seat cannot be taken as a signal that the momentum of voter support has returned to the ruling coalition, as the two seats are “unique and isolated” cases.
They are also divided as to whether Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak will call for snap polls by the first half of next year, amid widespread speculation that the double win will be reason enough to dissolve Parliament.
“From the results of the by-elections and the days leading up to the polling day, we see that Pakatan Rakyat has lost its momentum, their focus, and are distracted instead by internal issues that have affected the opposition’s focus and resolve to win these by-elections.
“I think the long string of by-elections has sapped PR of their financial resources which may have been a factor in BN’s wins. The peak of Pakatan’s dynamism as seen during the past Bukit Gantang by-election is no longer there,” said Ibrahim Suffian.
PR won four states and 82 federal seats in Election 2008, denying BN its customary two-thirds parliamentary majority. It also won eight out of the 13 by-elections thus far since the March 2008 general election.
Ibrahim, who is Merdeka Center director, said the results of the Galas by-election showed BN’s effective “low-key” campaigning method which indicated rural Malay support in Kelantan slowly returning to the federal coalition.
“If you look at Galas, you can see that Malay voters who were previously voting for Pakatan and were against BN are slowly returning back to BN’s fold. It also shows that Umno was more focused in the by-election, having a greater resolve and have learnt from their past experiences. Malay voters over there are slowly returning to BN,” Ibrahim told The Malaysian Insider.
Asked whether he thought PKR had made any inroads in Sabah, after coming in second after BN in Batu Sapi and having gathered more votes than local state party SAPP, Ibrahim claimed that the opposition still had “a long way to go” before it could actually make its presence felt in east Malaysia.
