Writing on the wall for Pakatan Rakyat
Although the Pakatan Rakyat might still hold the urban votes, it will lose influence in rural areas. Its existing regimes will be at risk, let alone to seize the central government.
By LIM SUE GOAN, My Sinchew
I wrote an article criticising the Pakatan Rakyat performance in early October and some people thought my analysis had exaggerated the situation. However, the results of the two by-elections proved that it was not alarmist at all.
The Pakatan Rakyat suffered big losses in the Galas and the Batu Sapi by-elections. It should be aware that rural areas are still strongholds of the BN and the seats they seized from the BN in the 2008 general elections could all return to the BN after the return of Malay votes.
Take Galas as an example. PAS won the seat be defeating the BN with a majority of 646 votes in the 2008 general election. However, in the by-election this time, 8% of Malay votes, 13% of Orang Asli votes and 2% of Chinese votes have returned to the BN, enabling the BN to beat PAS with a majority of 1,190 votes. In 2008, the Pakatan Rakyat won the BN traditional seat by relying on the then discontent sentiments of the voters. If the current favourable trend towards the BN remains, the BN will continue to hold the central power.
The 2008 general election was a special case in which Umno members were discontented with the inefficient leadership of the party. Former Prime Minister cum Umno president Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had lashed out at his successor Tun Abdullah Badawi and many national issues were left unresolved. But after Datuk Seri Najib Razak took over the office, Umno unity was restored, and the party started to handle important issues actively. Many Malay votes therefore returned to the BN.
If Najib’s Government Transformation Plan (GTP) and Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) achieve some results, the people’s confidence will gradually grow.
Although the Pakatan Rakyat might still hold the urban votes, it will lose influence in rural areas. Its existing regimes will be at risk, let alone to seize the central government.
The DAP is expected to be able to keep Penang but Selangor and Kelantan will be at risk and it is afraid that the Pakatan Rakyat might lose Kedah.
There are many rural areas in Selangor, Kedah and Kelantan. In April this year, the BN regained Ulu Selangor with a majority of 1,725 votes, proving the weak organisation of Selangor Pakatan Rakyat.
Kedah is the hometown of Mahathir and Umno members who cast emotional protest votes in the 2008 general election might return. It might be difficult for the Kedah PAS government to carry on as it lacks the political strength and performance.
In the 2004 general election, PAS retained Kelantan with 24 to 21 seats and it defeated Umno in Kemuning by only two votes. In the 2005 Pengkalan Pasir by-election, PAS lost a seat and it remains as the state government with 23 seats to 22 seats. This is what we called the true force comparison. PAS might lose Kelantan which has been ruled by it for 20 years.
Similar situation might take place in Perak, too. It is quite impossible for the Pakatan Rakyat to retrieve Perak. Meanwhile, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak will continue being strongholds of the BN.
To reverse the adverse situation, the Pakatan Rakyat should start from several aspects. It should change its negative image of “playing only with politics and infighting without performance”.
First, the four Pakatan Rakyat state governments must work together to jointly launch an economic stimulus plan and implement their election commitments.
Secondly, the efficiency of local and state governments must be improved to counter the BN transformation plans. For example, approving hawker licences and housing renovation plans within a day.
Thirdly, always prioritise the people, such as a cooperation among Kedah, Selangor and Kelantan to carry out flood relief efforts in north peninsula.
Like rowing a boat against the tide, political competitions require eagerness to make progress. Otherwise, they will just drown and disappear.
