Pakatan losing the race to Putrajaya?
The Pakatan Rakyat still has massive support in the urban areas, but it has not made much headway in the rural areas since the 2008 general election. The BN-Umno is still influential among the Malay and Orang Asli voters in remote areas.
By LIM SUE GOAN, My Sinchew
A reader sent an e-mail asking whether the Pakatan Rakyat has come to a hopeless situation as the BN has won the recent two by-elections with regained Malay votes, while the Pakatan Rakyat is facing many critical problems.
Based on the current scenario, if the Pakatan Rakyat does not act fast to deal with the critical situation, the BN will likely be returned to power after the next general election.
However, politics is not operated on a set formula like mathematics in which one plus one must equal to two. Politics thrives on changing mindsets with propaganda and mass appeal. If the BN continues instilling positive messages into the people’s minds, reducing mistakes, and avoiding infighting, it will not be surprising for it to return to power, and may even retrieve the two-thirds majority in Parliament.
Datuk Zaid Ibrahim’s quarrel with the PKR leadership will not be resolved so soon. His public criticisms of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Azmin Ali will surely provoke counterattacks from the Anwar-Azmin supporters. It certainly was an unexpected turn of event, with Zaid considered a trouble maker now, when he was earlier hailed as a hero.
The PKR must act fast to address its party election malpractices and quell the conflict as soon as possible. Exposing more of its ugly side in front of the public will only further destroy the alternative coalition’s crumbling image.
The Pakatan Rakyat still has massive support in the urban areas, but it has not made much headway in the rural areas since the 2008 general election. The BN-Umno is still influential among the Malay and Orang Asli voters in remote areas.
Just having urban support is not enough for the Pakatan Rakyat to gain power to rule the country. Among the total 222 parliamentary seats, 56 of them are in Sabah and Sarawak, with most of them being countryside constituencies. There are 166 seats in the peninsula and two-thirds of them are in rural areas or small towns like Bagan Pinang in Negeri Sembilan. The non-Malay (Chinese) vote is insignificant in these constituencies.
Take Galas as an example. PAS is still unable to gain control of the Orang Alsi votes even after it has ruled Kelantan for 20 years.
In Selangor and Kedah, the Pakatan Rakyat-controlled state governments are facing much difficulty in their attempt to extend their support base in the rural areas in these two states.
Of the three component parties of the Pakatan Rakyat, PAS has the most extensive grassroots organization and machinery, but it still lacks the resources to reach the Orang Asli villagers. Even if the Pakatan Rakyat now realizes its weakness in these remote areas, and tries to send people to penetrate them, it is apparent that it is a bit too late to do much.
For Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, even though the BN has won the two by-elections, he still cannot take a risk. Najib must be confident that the BN could to retain control of Putrajaya, and regain the two-thirds majority in Parliament before he is ready to call for the next general election. Time is on the BN side, but for the Pakatan Rakyat, time is fast running out.
Najib and his deputy Tan Seri Muhyiddin Yassin will go on a tour of the country next year and they can then judge the BN support rate. If the response is positive, the general election might be held together with the Sarawak state election.
BN leaders also hope that the Economic Transformation Programme would bring positive effects as economic rebounding can help them to gain more swing votes. However, it must be noted that the US has launched the Second Quantitative Easing Policy and the world economy might face a recession due to asset bubbles and inflation. Malaysia might be affected and thus, it is better to hold the general election earlier and later.
Another advantage of the BN is that MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek is a master of organization and he can face election much better than former MCA president Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat.
If it is a 1km race to reach Putrajaya, the Pakatan Rakyat is now 100 meters behind, and it will need all the luck to overtake the BN.
